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Mainz - Borussia Dortmund

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 5
  • Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Mainz Borussia Dortmund
    Mainz Borussia Dortmund
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.49 ↑
    (3.23)    		 3.85 ↑
    (3.78)    		 2.02 ↓
    (2.09)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Mainz
    27.5%    		Draw
    25%    		Borussia Dortmund
    47.5%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    29.4% 25.1% 45.5%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    28.7% 24.5% 46.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
  • Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    17.1% 0% 82.9%

    Mainz - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Mainz (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 70.37% โ€“ 95.35%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Borussia D (votes: 10 - 83.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    27. GermanyZentner R. (G)
    21. Germanyda Costa D.
    25. NorwayHanche-Olsen A.
      5. GermanyLeitsch M.
    30. SwitzerlandWidmer S. (C)
      6. JapanSano K.
    10. GermanyAmiri N.
      2. AustriaMwene P.
      8. GermanyNebel P.
      7. SouthLee Jae-Sung
    11. GermanySieb A.
    		  1. SwitzerlandKobel G. (G)
      3. GermanyAnton W.
      4. GermanySchlotterbeck N. (C)
      5. AlgeriaBensebaini R.
      2. BrazilCouto Y.
    20. AustriaSabitzer M.
      8. GermanyNmecha F.
    24. SwedenSvensson D.
    27. GermanyAdeyemi K.
    10. GermanyBrandt J.
    14. GermanyBeier M.
    Substitutes
    16. GermanyBell S.
    37. GermanyBobzien B.
    14. DenmarkBoving W.
    42. GermanyGleiber D.
    15. USAMaloney L.
      9. FranceNordin A.
      1. GermanyRiess L. (G)
    22. AustriaVeratschnig N.
    44. GermanyWeiper N.
    		  7. EnglandBellingham J.
    17. EnglandChukwuemeka C.
    13. GermanyGross P.
      9. GuineaGuirassy S.
    33. GermanyMeyer A. (G)
      6. TurkeyOzcan S.
    26. NorwayRyerson J.
    21. PortugalSilva F.
    25. GermanySule N.
    Coaches
         DenmarkHenriksen B.
    		     CroatiaKovac N.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 2)
    • 27', 0 - 1, Svensson D. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
    • 40', 0 - 2, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
    • 43', Couto Y. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 50', Amiri N. 🟨,
    • 63', Leitsch M. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
    • 63', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
    • 67', Zentner R. 🟥,
    • 68', Adeyemi K. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
    • 69', Hanche-Olsen A. ↓, Riess L. ↑,
    • 69', Couto Y. ↓, Ryerson J. ↑,
    • 77', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
    • 77', Sabitzer M. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
    • 80', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
    • 80', Sieb A. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
    • 87', Beier M. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
    • 90', Nebel P. 🟨,

    Preview

  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.
  • Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
  • Borussia D is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 3).
  • Borussia D may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Borussia D might have a minor edge in this game.
  • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Muscle Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Gleiber D. (Thigh Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card)
  • There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)
  • There are questionable in Mainz: Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury) Widmer S. (Injury)
  • There are questionable in Borussia D: Silva F. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 1.2:1.7).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Mainz 05
    German Bundesliga
    20.09.25 Augsburg - Mainz 1:4 ✺
    13.09.25 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1 ✺
    31.08.25 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    28.08.25 Mainz - Rosenborg 4:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    24.08.25 Mainz - Kรถln 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7
    WLTWL
    - Borussia Dortmund
    German Bundesliga
    21.09.25 Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg 1:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    16.09.25 Juventus - Borussia Dortmund 4:4 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    13.09.25 Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund 0:2 ✺
    31.08.25 Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin 3:0 ✺
    23.08.25 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 3:3 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1
    WTWWT
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    30.03.25 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 3:1
    09.11.24 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:1
    11.05.24 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:0
    19.12.23 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 1:1
    27.05.23 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 2:2
    25.01.23 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 1:2
    16.03.22 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 0:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Mainz 05
    German Bundesliga
    30.10.26 Elversberg - Mainz ✺
    - Borussia Dortmund
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 Borussia Dortmund - Betis ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund ✺

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