Match Info

USL League One

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Regal Stadium (Knoxville, TN) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Brazil	16:00	Disney+
Chile	16:00	Disney+
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Mexico	13:00	Disney+
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+


	One Knoxville		Spokane Velocity

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.40	3.70
	1.92	3.30	3.40
	2.06	3.27	3.6
	1.84	3.79	3.83	Watch
	2.03	3.1	3.55
	1.94	3.77	3.46	Watch
	1.88	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.04)	3.43 ↑ (3.25)	3.56 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

One Knoxville
47.6%

Draw
26.7%

Spokane Velocity
25.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44%

27.6%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

29.5%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

One Knoxville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Spokane Velocity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for One Knoxville than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spokane Velocity than the current prediction. (+1%)

One Knoxville - Spokane Velocity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Garibay J. (G) 22. Perkins W. 4. Skelton J. (C) 3. McRobb F. 2. Tiao C. 89. Baker T. 8. Murphy Jr. J. 21. Zarokostas S. 17. Goling M. 77. Rosamilia N. 9. Krioutchenkov D.	1. Lewis S. (C) 13. Opara L. 3. Spielman N. 12. Miller C. 33. Mensah M. 18. Waldeck D. 77. Lewis A. 34. Elmasnaouy A. 8. Vinyals N. 11. John-Brown S. 9. Brett N.
Substitutes
26. Brown J. 13. Bull 32. Burke J. (G) 6. Caputo A. 19. Conway E. 27. Cook E. 7. Diene B. 11. Linhares K.	17. Alexandre M. 20. Covi I. 6. Fernandez C. 4. Fitch S. 7. Gallardo J. 10. Gil L. 23. Merancio C. (G)
Coaches
Fuller I.	Veidman L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, John-Brown S. ⚽, Opara L. (A),
25', Miller C. 🟨,
29', Zarokostas S. 🟨,
45', Lewis A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zarokostas S. ↓, Linhares K. ↑,
48', Murphy Jr. J. 🟨,
61', Goling M. ↓, Diene B. ↑,
61', Tiao C. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Brett N. ⚽, Lewis A. (A),
70', Rosamilia N. ↓, Conway E. ↑,
70', Murphy Jr. J. ↓, Caputo A. ↑,
75', Vinyals N. ↓, Gil L. ↑,
81', Baker T. 🟨,
81', John-Brown S. ↓, Alexandre M. ↑,
81', Lewis A. ↓, Fernandez C. ↑,
90', Gil L. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 5th in the Promotion - USL League One Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 6th in the Promotion - USL League One Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

One Knoxville is Qualified for USL League One (Play Offs Quarter~finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, One Knoxville won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

One Knoxville may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

One Knoxville carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, One Knoxville has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:3 (averaging 1.7:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for One Knoxville against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 1.3:0.3 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Spokane Velocity	32	16	6	10	50:44	6	54
6	One Knoxville	32	15	9	8	52:36	16	54

Last Results with these Odds

One Knoxville - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 43.95%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- One Knoxville SC
USL League One
07.10.26	One Knoxville - Chattanooga Red Wolves	3:0 ✺
03.10.26	Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	One Knoxville - Westchester SC	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Union Omaha - One Knoxville	2:1 ✺
16.09.26	Fort Wayne - One Knoxville	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLTLW
- Spokane Velocity
USL League One
03.10.26	Spokane Velocity - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:3 ✺
30.09.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Spokane Velocity	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Forward Madison - Spokane Velocity	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Spokane Velocity - Boise	2:2 ✺
16.09.26	Union Omaha - Spokane Velocity	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
20.06.26	Spokane Velocity - One Knoxville	0:4
16.11.25	One Knoxville - Spokane Velocity	2:0
30.08.25	One Knoxville - Spokane Velocity	1:0
16.03.25	Spokane Velocity - One Knoxville	2:2
26.10.24	Spokane Velocity - One Knoxville	0:0
23.08.24	One Knoxville - Spokane Velocity	1:1

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