Match Info

USL League One

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: City Stadium (Richmond, VA)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Richmond Kickers		One Knoxville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.00	3.75	1.66
	3.95	3.60	1.68
	4.24	3.96	1.71
	4.19	4	1.72	Watch
	3.90	3.75	1.75
	3.75	4.06	1.80	Watch
	3.80	3.70	1.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↑ (3.25)	3.83 ↑ (3.5)	1.72 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Richmond Kickers
23%

Draw
23.8%

One Knoxville
53.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

25.6%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

24.7%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Richmond Kickers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

One Knoxville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting One Knoxville's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Richmond Kickers than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for One Knoxville than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fillion Y. (G) 2. Barnathan D. 4. Layton S. 44. Gallegos A. 3. Anderson H. 10. Seufert N. (C) 6. Sasankhah A. 45. Hanson H. 11. Pannholzer T. 70. Lucca Dourado 14. Vazquez Z.	25. Garibay J. (G) 26. Brown J. 4. Skelton J. (C) 3. McRobb F. 22. Perkins W. 89. Baker T. 6. Caputo A. 21. Zarokostas S. 17. Goling M. 7. Diene B. 9. Krioutchenkov D.
Substitutes
18. Amer A. 43. Codjoe G. 23. Freeman T. 34. Howell B. 7. Johnson L. 99. Moore D. 26. Murana M. 35. Sneddon J. (G) 22. Vinberg S.	13. Bull 32. Burke J. (G) 19. Conway E. 70. Diop M. 8. Murphy Jr. J. 77. Rosamilia N. 2. Tiao C.
Coaches
Ownby B.	Fuller I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Barnathan D. ⚽, Layton S. (A),
5', 2 - 0, Lucca Dourado ⚽, Hanson H. (A),
28', 2 - 1, Krioutchenkov D. ⚽, Zarokostas S. (A),
38', 2 - 2, Goling M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lucca Dourado ↓, Freeman T. ↑,
55', Layton S. 🟨,
67', Zarokostas S. ↓, Diop M. ↑,
67', Caputo A. ↓, Murphy Jr. J. ↑,
70', Hanson H. ↓, Moore D. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Freeman T. ⚽, Vazquez Z. (A),
75', Brown J. ↓, Tiao C. ↑,
75', Goling M. ↓, Rosamilia N. ↑,
78', Vazquez Z. ↓, Johnson L. ↑,
83', Perkins W. ↓, Bull ↑,
85', Tiao C. 🟨,
86', Sasankhah A. ↓, Vinberg S. ↑,
90+1', Skelton J. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 17th and 4th in the Promotion - USL League One Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Richmond Kickers won 3.

Richmond Kickers is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

One Knoxville has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to One Knoxville for this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Richmond Kickers has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 10:9 (averaging 1.4:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Richmond Kickers against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 6:4 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	One Knoxville ✔	30	14	9	7	49:34	15	51
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	30:60	-30	23

Last Results with these Odds

One Knoxville - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 46.87%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Richmond Kickers
USL League One
27.09.26	New York Cosmos - Richmond Kickers	3:2 ✺
19.09.26	Richmond Kickers - Charlotte Independence	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Westchester SC - Richmond Kickers	5:2 ✺
12.09.26	Richmond Kickers - Chattanooga Red Wolves	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	Fort Wayne - Richmond Kickers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL
- One Knoxville SC
USL League One
27.09.26	One Knoxville - Westchester SC	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Union Omaha - One Knoxville	2:1 ✺
16.09.26	Fort Wayne - One Knoxville	2:3 ✺
11.09.26	One Knoxville - Naples	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	AV Alta - One Knoxville	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
04.10.25	Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville	2:1
23.08.25	Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville	1:0
20.08.25	One Knoxville - Richmond Kickers	2:0
01.06.24	One Knoxville - Richmond Kickers	1:2
03.05.24	Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville	1:1
06.10.23	One Knoxville - Richmond Kickers	2:2
24.06.23	Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville	2:2

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