Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Championship Soccer Stadium (Irvine, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Orange County SC		Phoenix Rising

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.45	3.4
	2	3.35	3.19
	2.12	3.24	3.34	Watch
	2	3.1	3.25
	2.04	3.2	3.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.94)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	3.31 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orange County SC
44.6%

Draw
27.9%

Phoenix Rising
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

27.2%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.3%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rando A. (G) 21. War M. 5. Brewitt T. (C) 6. Tubbs G. 19. Partida K. 4. Benalcazar N. 25. Solis E. 12. Bazini Y. 18. Palomino M. 11. MacKinnon L. 10. Hegardt C.	1. Rakovsky P. (G) 91. Ramirez E. 24. Pelayo A. (C) 6. Vukovic A. 20. Biasi L. 13. Moursou J. 8. Gomez D. 45. Capetillo A. 7. Sacko I. 9. Carvajal J. 11. Studenhofft G.
Substitutes
23. Doghman R. 15. Espy T. 31. Kadono T. (G) 29. Kurnik O. 22. Marinch A. 8. Sylla O. 9. Zubak E.	10. Avayevu H. 12. Dennis C. 33. Gaydon J. 22. Johnson D. 17. JP Scearce 14. Odunze C. (G) 2. Smith C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Partida K. 🟨,
34', Moursou J. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Studenhofft G. ⚽,
44', Pelayo A. 🟨,
45+1', Vukovic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', War M. 🟨,
51', Capetillo A. 🟨,
57', Studenhofft G. ↓, Dennis C. ↑,
66', Partida K. ↓, Doghman R. ↑,
66', Palomino M. ↓, Zubak E. ↑,
69', Capetillo A. ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
69', Pelayo A. ↓, Smith C. ↑,
69', Moursou J. ↓, JP Scearce ↑,
73', MacKinnon L. ↓, Sylla O. ↑,
78', Dennis C. 🟨,
84', Tubbs G. ↓, Espy T. ↑,
84', Solis E. ↓, Marinch A. ↑,
85', Ramirez E. ↓, Avayevu H. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Sylla O. ⚽, Bazini Y. (A),
88', Smith C. 🟨,
90', Brewitt T. 🟨,
90', Marinch A. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
93', Benalcazar N. 🟨,
94', Rakovsky P. 🟨,
96', 1 - 2, Vukovic A. ⚽,
102', Biasi L. 🟨,
105', Bazini Y. ↓, Kurnik O. ↑,
105+2', Carvajal J. ↓, Gaydon J. ↑,
108', Johnson D. 🟨,
116', Zubak E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 2.

Orange County SC is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Phoenix Rising has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Orange County SC may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Orange County SC will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Orange County SC won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.4:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orange County SC
USL Championship
28.03.26	Oakland Roots - Orange County SC	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Orange County SC - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	1:0 ✺
US Open Cup
18.03.26	Orange County SC - Laguna United	3:0 ✺
USL Championship
14.03.26	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWTT
- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
28.03.26	Tulsa - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Phoenix Rising - Oakland Roots	2:2 ✺
US Open Cup
17.03.26	Phoenix Rising - San Ramon	4:0 ✺
USL Championship
14.03.26	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	San Antonio - Phoenix Rising	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
14.03.26	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	1:1
30.07.25	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	4:1
07.06.25	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	3:1
25.09.24	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	2:0
08.06.24	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	2:1
28.10.23	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	1:2 ET
30.09.23	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	1:1

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