Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 6

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vinotinto		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	10	4.75	1.22	Watch
	4.85	3.75	1.62	Watch
	7.26	4.32	1.46
	2.61	3.21	2.66	Watch
	8.85	4.48	1.36	Watch
	5.66	3.6	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.54 ↑ (2.61)	4.02 ↑ (3.21)	1.65 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
15.2%

Draw
24.7%

Mushuc Runa
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.1%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.9%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mushuc Runa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+20.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-24.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	18.2%	81.8%

Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mushuc Runa: 59% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Mushuc Runa (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1 - Vinotinto (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Mushuc Runa (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mushuc Runa will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Vinotinto (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Mushuc Runa (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mitre L. (G) 23. Gomez L. 4. Aguirre A. 26. Hernandez E. 11. Mina A. 22. Rodriguez E. 18. Ushina K. 6. Ona C. 8. Melo A. 77. Ibarra R. 7. Lugo J.	25. Formento R. (G) 26. Peralta K. 2. Bentaberry B. 29. Quintero D. 31. Mina G. 40. Burbano R. 5. Davila E. 14. Tapiero S. 19. Gracia A. 17. Penilla C. 49. Dos Santos J.
Substitutes
5. Coba K. 54. Grijalva M. 2. Iriarte I. 30. Julio M. 15. Larotonda C. 10. Luna D. 40. Mera F. 36. Nardelli G. 52. Rodriguez J. 12. Santos M. (G)	41. Caicedo E. 7. Castro S. 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 12. Collaguazo J. (G) 50. Cusme J. 10. Delgado B. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 42. Pabon W. (G) 55. Verges J.
Coaches
Schurrer G.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Hernandez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hernandez E. ↓, Nardelli G. ↑,
46', Bentaberry B. ↓, Mancilla Quinones J. L. ↑,
61', Ushina K. 🟨,
68', Gomez L. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
74', Burbano R. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
80', Penilla C. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
80', Melo A. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
86', Ibarra R. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
90+1', Peralta K. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,

Preview

Vinotinto is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mushuc Runa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Mushuc Runa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.11.25	Manta - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Técnico Universitario - Vinotinto	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Vinotinto - Manta	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWLL
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.11.25	Mushuc Runa - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Manta - Mushuc Runa	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Técnico Universitario - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Manta	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	2:1
13.07.25	Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa	1:1
14.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	1:2

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