Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 16

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Osaka		Imabari

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.18	3.05	3	Watch
	2.21	3.23	3.27
	2.17	3.29	3.27	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.14	3.1	3.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.26)	3.15 ↓ (3.29)	3.17 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osaka
42.3%

Draw
29%

Imabari
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

28.2%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

27%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Imabari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Imabari than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Osaka - Imabari Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Imabari will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sugawara H. (G) 11. Tsutsumi S. 40. Kawakami R. 4. Yamashita R. 13. Mima K. 10. Kubo R. 14. Sumida S. 26. Dohi K. 41. Nose R. 9. Shimada T. 29. Sugawara R.	18. Ito G. (G) 2. Umeki R. 29. Maruyama Y. 24. Takeuchi Y. 33. Sasa S. 77. Kato J. 15. Gabriel Gomes 6. Kajiura Y. 36. Kubo K. 19. Furuyama K. 10. Junio E.
Substitutes
15. Fukui K. 37. Iesaka Y. 66. Kim Y. 7. Kitsui T. 36. Morimura S. 31. Sekinuma N. (G) 6. Tachino S. 99. Vinicius Souza 27. Wada H.	44. Hayashi M. 8. Komai Y. 9. Kondo T. 17. Mochii K. 14. Mori K. 20. Rodrigo Souza 25. Sato R. 3. Son T. 16. Yamamoto T. (G)
Coaches
Yabuta M.	Kuraishi K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Junio E. ⚽,
18', Gabriel Gomes 🟨,
45', Kajiura Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Dohi K. ↓, Iesaka Y. ↑,
46', Sugawara R. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
62', Kubo K. ↓, Mochii K. ↑,
62', Furuyama K. ↓, Hayashi M. ↑,
65', Kubo R. ↓, Fukui K. ↑,
77', Shimada T. ↓, Vinicius Souza ↑,
77', Nose R. ↓, Morimura S. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Vinicius Souza ⚽, Tsutsumi S. (A),
79', Kato J. ↓, Kondo T. ↑,
83', Kajiura Y. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
83', Junio E. ↓, Mori K. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Kondo T. ⚽, Hayashi M. (A),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ))

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Osaka could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osaka won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Osaka won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Osaka - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.1%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Osaka
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Nara Club - Osaka	1:3 ✺
02.05.26	Kochi United - Osaka	1:0 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Osaka - Tokushima Vortis	3:2 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Albirex Niigata - Osaka	1:0 ✺
17.04.26	Osaka - Ehime	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWLL
- FC Imabari
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Imabari - Kochi United	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Imabari - Nara Club	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Ehime - Imabari	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Imabari - Kataller Toyama	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Albirex Niigata - Imabari	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
22.02.26	Imabari - Osaka	2:0
Japan J3 League
17.08.24	Imabari - Osaka	1:1
30.03.24	Osaka - Imabari	0:0
24.11.23	Imabari - Osaka	3:1
09.04.23	Osaka - Imabari	3:1

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