Match Info

J3 League - Round 10

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Osaka		Thespakusatsu Gunma

	1	X	2
	1.9	3	3.8
	1.95	3.1	3.8
	1.98	3.23	4.24
	1.96	3.19	4.16	Watch
	1.95	2.88	3.9
	1.88	3.1	4.09	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.05)	3.09 ↓ (3.3)	3.97 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osaka
47.2%

Draw
29.7%

Thespakusatsu Gunma
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.3%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

27.1%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Thespakusatsu Gunma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Thespakusatsu Gunma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Osaka - Thespakusatsu Gunma Predictions

Users Predictions: Osaka will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yamamoto T. (G) 6. Tachino S. 5. Minakuchi Y. 3. Kawakami R. 16. Hashimoto R. 24. Sato R. 25. Takei S. 33. Woo S. 11. Tone R. 19. Masuda S. 9. Shimada T. (C)	13. Kondo I. (G) 36. Adachi S. 43. Nose S. 3. Ohata R. 8. Yamauchi R. 27. Fujimura R. 7. Nishimura Y. 20. Shimokawa T. 38. Konishi H. 9. Aoki S. 17. Yamanaka A.
Substitutes
8. Haga A. 22. Hayashida K. 68. Hirabuki G. (G) 20. Horikoshi D. 7. Kitsui T. 39. Mochizuki S. 51. Nishimura M. 37. Tsutsumi S. 4. Yamashita R.	4. Funabashi Y. 11. Kagami T. 14. Kikuchi K. 21. Kim Je-hee (G) 23. Onozeki T. 2. Tagashira R. 22. Takahashi Y. 35. Tamashiro T. 18. Tanaka S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Shimokawa T. ⚽, Nishimura Y. (A),
45+1', 0 - 2, Yamanaka A. ⚽, Konishi H. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Woo S. ↓, Haga A. ↑,
46', Sato R. ↓, Tsutsumi S. ↑,
53', Haga A. 🟨,
62', Adachi S. ↓, Tagashira R. ↑,
62', Masuda S. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
62', Tone R. ↓, Nishimura M. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Kitsui T. ⚽, Tsutsumi S. (A),
72', 2 - 2, Shimada T. ⚽, Tsutsumi S. (A),
74', Yamanaka A. ↓, Kagami T. ↑,
74', Shimokawa T. ↓, Tamashiro T. ↑,
84', Nishimura Y. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
84', Fujimura R. ↓, Funabashi Y. ↑,
84', Shimada T. ↓, Mochizuki S. ↑,
89', Tanaka S. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 3, Tamashiro T. ⚽, Tanaka S. (A),
90+2', 3 - 3, Nishimura M. ⚽, Haga A. (A),
90+3', 4 - 3, Nishimura M. ⚽, Tsutsumi S. (A),

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League and 16).

Recent matches Osaka is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Thespakusatsu is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Osaka have a series of home games.

Osaka will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
12.04.25	Osaka - Vanraure Hachinohe	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Osaka - Azul Claro Numazu	3:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Osaka - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWLW
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J3 League
13.04.25	Sagamihara - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:4 ET ✺
Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Nara Club - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TTLLL

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