Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Spain	M+ LaLiga
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Inter, Meridiano


	Ourense CF		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	6.5	4	1.49	Watch
	6.4	3.95	1.49
	6.8	4.18	1.52
	6.75	4.22	1.5	Watch
	6	3.8	1.5
	6.86	4.01	1.52	Watch
	6.5	4	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.54 ↓ (6.89)	4.02 ↑ (3.91)	1.5 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
14.3%

Draw
23.3%

Athletic Bilbao
62.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.5%

23.8%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

24%

63.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 2. Coto E. 4. Carmona F. (C) 14. Perez A. 3. Sanz H. 11. Aranzabe A. 24. Moreno C. 8. Ramos J. 17. Ouhdadi O. 16. Munoz D. 7. Bouzaig A.	27. Padilla A. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 15. Lekue I. 19. Boiro A. 30. Rego A. 6. Vesga M. 9. Williams I. (C) 8. Sancet O. 25. Izeta 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
10. Camus M. 6. Castillo N. 21. Guerrero A. 12. Jelbat A. 15. Piera J. 5. Prado M. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 1. Raton A. (G) 9. Vazquez K. 22. Yuste A.	12. Areso J. 7. Berenguer A. 20. Gomez U. 18. Jauregizar M. 47. Monreal I. 4. Paredes A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 44. Sanchez S. 22. Serrano N. 1. Simon U. (G) 10. Williams N.
Coaches
Llacer D.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Vesga M. 🟨,
45', Munoz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Munoz D. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
59', Moreno C. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
63', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
63', Vesga M. ↓, Jauregizar M. ↑,
69', Aranzabe A. ↓, Guerrero A. ↑,
69', Izeta ↓, Williams N. ↑,
79', Rego A. 🟨,
90', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Piera J. ↑,
90', Bouzaig A. ↓, Jelbat A. ↑,
90', Boiro A. ↓, Paredes A. ↑,
90+1', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
90+4', Coto E. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
98', Sancet O. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
105', Ramos J. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
106', Perez A. 🟨,
106', 0 - 1, Jauregizar M. ⚽, Paredes A. (A),
107', Jauregizar M. 🟨,

Preview

Ourense CF is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletic's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletic is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.12.25	Ourense CF - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Ourense CF - Girona	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ourense CF - Unionistas de Salamanca	4:3 ✺
22.11.25	Arenteiro - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TLWWW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
14.12.25	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Paris Saint-Germain	0:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
03.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	Levante - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LTWLW

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