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Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 17
  • Date: 22 December 2025, Monday
  • Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)
  • Referee: Busquets M. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Athletic Bilbao Espanyol
    Athletic Bilbao Espanyol
    1 X 2
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    betsson 1.82 3.35 4.95 Watch and Bet Watch
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.86 ↑
    (1.65)    		 3.38 ↓
    (3.79)    		 4.79 ↓
    (5.45)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Athletic Bilbao
    51.6%    		Draw
    28.4%    		Espanyol
    20%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    57.5% 25% 17.4%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    56.8% 24.7% 17.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.
  • Espanyol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espanyol than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    69.6% 10.1% 20.3%

    Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 69 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 48 - 69.6%). Espanyol will win (votes: 14 - 20.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 10.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 58.7% – 80.5%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.75 - Athletic (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Espanyol (4.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Espanyol (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 25 - 80.6%). Espanyol (votes: 5 - 16.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.2%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
      4. SpainParedes A.
    15. SpainLekue I.
    19. SpainBoiro A.
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
      8. SpainSancet O.
    10. SpainWilliams N.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
    		13. SerbiaDmitrovic M. (G)
    23. MoroccoEl Hilali O.
      5. SpainCalero F.
      6. UruguayCabrera L. (C)
    22. SpainRomero C.
    10. SpainLozano P.
      4. SpainGonzalez U.
      8. SpainExposito
    24. EnglandDolan T.
      9. SpainFernandez Jaen R.
    11. SpainMilla P.
    Substitutes
    12. SpainAreso J.
    20. SpainGomez U.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    25. SpainIzeta
    47. SpainMonreal I.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
    27. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
    30. SpainRego A.
    44. SpainSanchez S.
    22. SpainSerrano N.
      6. SpainVesga M.
    		  1. SpainFortuno A. (G)
    19. SpainGarcia K.
    28. SpainGomez F.
    27. SpainHernandez J.
    17. SpainJofre
    16. ItalyKoleosho L.
    38. GermanyRiedel C.
    20. SpainRoca A.
    15. SpainRubio M.
    12. SpainSalinas J.
      2. SpainSanchez R.
    30. SpainTristan P. (G)
    Coaches
         SpainValverde E.
    		     SpainGonzalez M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 1)
    • 28', Ruiz de Galarreta I. 🟨,
    • 33', Williams N. 🟨,
    • 38', 1 - 0, Berenguer A. ⚽,
    • 44', 1 - 1, Romero C. ⚽,
    • 45+1', Gorosabel A. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 52', 1 - 2, Milla P. ⚽, Dolan T. (A),
    • 57', Milla P. ↓, Jofre ↑,
    • 57', Williams N. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
    • 57', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
    • 72', Lozano P. ↓, Garcia K. ↑,
    • 76', Boiro A. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
    • 76', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
    • 77', Gonzalez U. 🟨,
    • 79', Williams I. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
    • 80', Rego A. 🟨,
    • 83', Dolan T. ↓, Salinas J. ↑,
    • 83', Romero C. ↓, Riedel C. ↑,
    • 84', Exposito ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
    • 86', Riedel C. 🟨,

    Preview

  • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3.
  • Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
  • Espanyol is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
  • Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • In this match, Athletic is considered a favorite.
  • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berchiche Y. (Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Laporte A. (Muscle Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Vivian D. (Yellow Cards)
  • There will not play in Espanyol: Pickel C. (International duty) Terrats R. (Muscle Injury)
  • There are questionable in Espanyol: Puado J. (Knee Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:16. (average 1.3:0.8).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).

    • Last Results with these Odds

    Athletic Bilbao - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 57.53%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    18.12.25 Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao 0:1 ET ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.12.25 Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    10.12.25 Athletic Bilbao - Paris Saint-Germain 0:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    06.12.25 Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid 1:0 ✺
    03.12.25 Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid 0:3 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7
    WLTWL
    - RCD Espanyol
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.12.25 Getafe - Espanyol 0:1 ✺
    07.12.25 Espanyol - Rayo Vallecano 1:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    04.12.25 Atlético Baleares - Espanyol 1:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    30.11.25 Celta de Vigo - Espanyol 0:1 ✺
    24.11.25 Espanyol - Sevilla 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1
    WWLWW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    16.02.25 Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao 1:1
    19.10.24 Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol 4:1
    08.04.23 Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao 1:2
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    18.01.23 Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol 1:0
    Spanish LaLiga
    04.09.22 Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol 0:1
    07.02.22 Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol 2:1
    26.10.21 Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao 1:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao ✺
    - RCD Espanyol
    Spanish LaLiga
    09.10.26 Málaga - Espanyol ✺

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