Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Athletic Bilbao		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.9	1.75
	4.35	3.9	1.82
	4.59	3.95	1.79
	4.36	3.98	1.82	Watch
	4.4	3.75	1.75
	4.73	4	1.75
	4.33	3.66	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↓ (5.43)	3.88 ↓ (4.2)	1.79 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
21.6%

Draw
24.7%

Paris Saint-Germain
53.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

22.8%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

22.4%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paris Saint-Germain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.7%	6.8%	84.5%

Athletic Bilbao - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - PSG (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Athletic (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.25, 1st Half - Athletic (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - PSG (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (86 of 102 users predict this - 84.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.25% – 91.37%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (42 of 45 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 49 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 3 - 6.1%). PSG (votes: 44 - 89.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 12. Areso J. 3. Vivian D. 17. Berchiche Y. (C) 19. Boiro A. 18. Jauregizar M. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 7. Berenguer A. 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.	39. Safonov M. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 87. Neves J. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 29. Barcola B. 24. Mayulu S. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
34. De Luis J. 20. Gomez U. 2. Gorosabel A. 31. Hierro A. 15. Lekue I. 27. Padilla A. (G) 30. Rego A. 44. Sanchez S. 26. Santos M. (G) 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M. 9. Williams I.	14. Doue D. 60. James M. (G) 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 49. Mbaye I. 47. Ndjantou Q. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
30', Zaire-Emery W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Marquinhos ↓, Zabarnyi I. ↑,
48', Berenguer A. 🟨,
62', Mayulu S. ↓, Doue D. ↑,
62', Guruzeta G. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
73', Sancet O. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
73', Areso J. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
73', Jauregizar M. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
78', Barcola B. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
78', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
90+3', Gomez U. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Athletic has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

PSG is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, PSG is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Laporte A. (Muscle Injury) Paredes A. (Yellow Cards) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Beraldo L. (Calf Injury) Chevalier L. (Ankle Injury) Dembele O. (Illness) Hakimi A. (Ankle Injury) Hernandez L. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Athletic: Navarro R. (Ankle Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Paris Saint-Germain - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 59.53%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
03.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	Levante - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Slavia Prague - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.11.25	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWTL
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
06.12.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Rennes	5:0 ✺
29.11.25	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Tottenham Hotspur	5:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
22.11.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Le Havre	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	Lyon - Paris Saint-Germain	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWWW

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