Match Info

LaLiga - Round 36

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona)

Referee: Guzman J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Dsports 1311, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Osasuna		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.68	3.35	2.62	Watch
	2.72	3.55	2.68
	2.69	3.72	2.56
	2.5	3.4	2.5
	2.72	3.64	2.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.62)	3.53 ↓ (3.53)	2.61 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna
36.1%

Draw
27.2%

Atlético Madrid
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

26.9%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

27.2%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	21.6%	54.9%

Osasuna - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Osasuna will win (votes: 11 - 22.4%). Atlético will win (votes: 27 - 55.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 22.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 41.2% – 69%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Atlético (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fernandez A. (G) 19. Rosier V. 24. Catena A. 22. Boyomo F. 20. Galan J. 7. Moncayola J. 6. Torro L. 14. Garcia R. (C) 16. Gomez M. 18. Moro R. 17. Budimir A.	1. Musso J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 17. Hancko D. 3. Ruggeri M. 11. Almada T. 4. Mendoza R. 6. Koke (C) 21. Vargas O. 7. Griezmann A. 22. Lookman A.
Substitutes
41. Arguibide I. 11. Barja K. 2. Benito I. 23. Bretones A. 3. Cruz J. 9. Garcia R. 5. Herrando J. 8. Munoz I. 10. Oroz A. 29. Osambela A. 32. Rafa (G) 31. Stamatakis D. (G)	29. Belaid R. 32. Bonar J. 61. Cubo M. 34. Diaz J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 15. Lenglet C. 24. Le Normand R. 37. Luque I. 47. Morcillo J. 13. Oblak J. (G) 40. Puric A. 9. Sorloth A.
Coaches
Lisci A.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Galan J. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Lookman A. (Penalty Awarded),
18', Mendoza R. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
30', Garcia R. 🟨,
37', Moro R. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
45+9', Budimir A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Almada T. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
52', Llorente M. 🟨,
57', Koke 🟨,
57', Barja K. 🟨,
59', Pubill M. 🟨,
60', Garcia R. ↓,
60', Galan J. ↓, Bretones A. ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Sorloth A. ⚽, Llorente M. (A),
72', Torro L. ↓, Oroz A. ↑,
72', Gomez M. ↓, Osambela A. ↑,
79', Llorente M. 🟨,
82', Lookman A. ↓, Lenglet C. ↑,
83', Simeone D. 🟨,
85', Le Normand R. 🟨,
85', Catena A. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 2, Barja K. ⚽, Garcia R. (A),
90+2', Boyomo F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Atlético is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2.

Recent form of Osasuna has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Osasuna may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Osasuna: Herrera S. (Red Card) Munoz V. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Ankle Injury) Baena A. (Yellow Cards) Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Cardoso J. (Contusion) Gimenez J. M. (Injury) Gonzalez N. (Muscle Injury) Molina N. (Muscle Injury) Simeone G. (Hip Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 13:38. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:19. (average 0.6:1.9).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.41% Osasuna: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
14	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6:13	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Osasuna - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 36.21%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.91%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
08.05.26	Levante - Osasuna	3:2 ✺
02.05.26	Osasuna - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Osasuna - Sevilla	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Osasuna - Betis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLT
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
09.05.26	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.05.26	Arsenal - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.05.26	Valencia - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
18.10.25	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:0
15.05.25	Osasuna - Atlético Madrid	2:0
12.01.25	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:0
19.05.24	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:4
28.09.23	Osasuna - Atlético Madrid	0:2
21.05.23	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	3:0
29.01.23	Osasuna - Atlético Madrid	0:1

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