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Osasuna - Real Oviedo

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 20
  • Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished
  • Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona) 🌤️ ...
  • Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Osasuna Real Oviedo
    Osasuna Real Oviedo
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.77 ↑
    (1.73)    		 3.44 ↓
    (3.47)    		 5.07 ↓
    (5.12)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Osasuna
    53.6%    		Draw
    27.6%    		Real Oviedo
    18.7%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    54.5% 27.1% 18.4%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    54.9% 26.9% 18.2%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)
  • Real Oviedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    74.4% 15.4% 10.3%

    Osasuna - Real Oviedo Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Osasuna will win (votes: 29 - 76.3%). Oviedo will win (votes: 3 - 7.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Osasuna: 62.8% – 89.8%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 5 - 50%). Oviedo (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • DC - draw (1.99) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Oviedo (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Oviedo (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainHerrera S. (G)
    19. FranceRosier V.
    24. SpainCatena A.
      5. SpainHerrando J.
    20. SpainGalan J.
      6. SpainTorro L.
    16. SpainGomez M.
    14. SpainGarcia R. (C)
    10. SpainOroz A.
    21. SpainMunoz V.
    17. CroatiaBudimir A.
    		13. SpainEscandell A. (G)
    24. SpainAhijado L.
      4. SpainCostas D. (C)
    15. SpainLuengo O.
      3. NigerAlhassane R.
    10. FranceHassan H.
      6. GhanaSibo K.
    11. ArgentinaColombatto S.
      7. MoroccoChaira I.
      5. SpainReina A.
      9. UruguayVinas F.
    Substitutes
    41. SpainArguibide I.
    11. SpainBarja K.
    18. SurinameBecker S.
    22. CameroonBoyomo F.
    23. SpainBretones A.
      3. SpainCruz J.
    13. SpainFernandez A. (G)
      9. SpainGarcia R.
      8. SpainMunoz I.
    29. SpainOsambela A.
    		27. SpainAgudin P.
    17. UruguayBorbas T.
    12. SpainCalvo D.
      8. SpainCazorla S.
    20. BelgiumDendoncker L.
    23. UruguayFonseca N.
    19. SpainFores A.
    21. SerbiaIlic L.
    25. SpainLopez J.
      1. RomaniaMoldovan H. (G)
    26. SpainNarvaez M. (G)
    22. SpainVidal N.
    Coaches
         ItalyLisci A.
    		     UruguayAlmada G.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 1)
    • 7', Sibo K. 🟨,
    • 22', Chaira I. 🟨,
    • 36', Costas D. 🟨,
    • 40', 0 - 1, Vinas F. ⚽, Hassan H. (A),
    • 45', 1 - 1, Budimir A. ⚽, Galan J. (A),
    • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
    • 64', Gomez M. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
    • 68', 1 - 2, Reina A. ⚽, Luengo O. (A),
    • 71', Sibo K. ↓, Dendoncker L. ↑,
    • 71', Colombatto S. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
    • 73', Torro L. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
    • 73', Rosier V. ↓, Boyomo F. ↑,
    • 73', Herrando J. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
    • 75', 2 - 2, Budimir A. ⚽, Boyomo F. (A),
    • 77', Garcia R. 🟨,
    • 85', Fonseca N. 🟨,
    • 86', Hassan H. ↓, Ilic L. ↑,
    • 88', Almada G. 🟨,
    • 90+2', 3 - 2, Munoz V. ⚽,
    • 90+4', Oroz A. ↓, Osambela A. ↑,
    • 90+4', Ahijado L. ↓, Borbas T. ↑,
    • 90+5', Catena A. 🟥,

    Preview

  • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2.
  • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
  • Osasuna may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • In this match, Osasuna is a strong favorite.
  • There will not play in Osasuna: Benito I. (Knee Injury) Moncayola J. (Yellow Cards)
  • There will not play in Oviedo: Bailly E. (Ankle Injury) Carmo D. (Yellow Cards) Ejaria O. (Injury) Lemos A. (Knee Injury)
  • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.3:0.6).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    12Osasuna1032510:20-1011

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Osasuna: 0.17%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Osasuna
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    13.01.26 Real Sociedad - Osasuna 3:2 penalties ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.01.26 Girona - Osasuna 1:0 ✺
    03.01.26 Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao 1:1 ✺
    20.12.25 Osasuna - Deportivo Alavés 3:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    17.12.25 Huesca - Osasuna 2:4 ET ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7
    LLTWW
    - Real Oviedo
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.01.26 Real Oviedo - Betis 1:1 ✺
    04.01.26 Deportivo Alavés - Real Oviedo 1:1 ✺
    20.12.25 Real Oviedo - Celta de Vigo 0:0 ✺
    14.12.25 Sevilla - Real Oviedo 4:0 ✺
    05.12.25 Real Oviedo - Mallorca 0:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6
    TTTLT
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    03.11.25 Real Oviedo - Osasuna 0:0
    Spanish LaLiga2
    08.06.19 Osasuna - Real Oviedo 1:0
    20.10.18 Real Oviedo - Osasuna 2:1
    12.05.18 Osasuna - Real Oviedo 2:1
    10.12.17 Real Oviedo - Osasuna 1:0
    04.06.16 Real Oviedo - Osasuna 0:5
    16.01.16 Osasuna - Real Oviedo 0:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Osasuna
    Spanish LaLiga
    02.11.26 Deportivo A Coruña - Osasuna ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.26 Atlético Calatayud - Osasuna ✺
    - Real Oviedo
    Spanish LaLiga2
    02.11.26 Real Oviedo - Las Palmas ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.26 Numancia - Real Oviedo ✺

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