Match Info

LaLiga - Round 15

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere (Oviedo)

Referee: Galech I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Real Oviedo		Mallorca

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.9	3	Watch
	2.58	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.65	3.05	3.11
	2.61	2.99	3.04	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.9
	2.71	3.1	3.09	Watch
	2.6	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.64)	2.99 ↓ (3.13)	3.02 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Oviedo
36.4%

Draw
31.9%

Mallorca
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

30.4%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

31.7%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Oviedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Mallorca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.5%	57.1%	16.3%

Real Oviedo - Mallorca Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Oviedo will win (votes: 13 - 27.1%). Mallorca will win (votes: 7 - 14.6%). It will Tie (votes: 28 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 44.4% – 72.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Oviedo (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 10 - 90.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Oviedo (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Mallorca (1.51) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Oviedo (votes: 4 - 25%). Mallorca (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 10 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Escandell A. (G) 22. Vidal N. 4. Costas D. 16. Carmo D. 3. Alhassane R. 9. Vinas F. 20. Dendoncker L. 11. Colombatto S. 7. Chaira I. 8. Cazorla S. (C) 23. Rondon S.	13. Bergstrom L. (G) 23. Maffeo P. 24. Valjent M. 21. Raillo A. (C) 22. Mojica J. 5. Mascarell O. 12. Samu Costa 18. Joseph M. 10. Darder S. 17. Virgili J. 7. Muriqi V.
Substitutes
27. Agudin P. 24. Ahijado L. 2. Bailly E. 18. Brekalo J. 12. Calvo D. 14. Ejaria O. 19. Fores A. 10. Hassan H. 15. Luengo O. 1. Moldovan H. (G) 5. Reina A. 6. Sibo K.	11. Asano T. 30. Domenech M. 4. Kumbulla M. 19. Llabres J. 27. Lopez D. 2. Morey Bauza M. 8. Morlanes M. 25. Pichu Cuellar (G) 9. Prats A. 26. Salhi I. 6. Sanchez A. 20. Torre P.
Coaches
Carrion L.	Arrasate J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Samu Costa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Chaira I. ↓, Hassan H. ↑,
75', Darder S. ↓, Morlanes M. ↑,
80', Virgili J. ↓, Asano T. ↑,
82', Rondon S. ↓, Fores A. ↑,
82', Dendoncker L. ↓, Ejaria O. ↑,
89', Cazorla S. 🟥,
90+3', Maffeo P. ↓, Llabres J. ↑,
90+5', Vinas F. 🟥,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oviedo won 0.

Oviedo has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mallorca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mallorca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Oviedo: Domingues B. (Injury) Ilic L. (Inactive) Lemos A. (Knee Injury) Lopez J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mallorca: Lato T. (Muscle Injury) Rodriguez D. (Suspended) Roman L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Oviedo won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Oviedo won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga
29.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Oviedo	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Real Oviedo - Rayo Vallecano	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Oviedo	1:0 ✺
03.11.25	Real Oviedo - Osasuna	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Oviedo	4:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLTL
- RCD Mallorca
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Numancia - Mallorca	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
29.11.25	Mallorca - Osasuna	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Villarreal - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Mallorca - Getafe	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Betis - Mallorca	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
20.03.21	Mallorca - Real Oviedo	0:0
03.01.21	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	2:2
09.03.19	Mallorca - Real Oviedo	1:0
04.11.18	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	1:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
11.09.18	Mallorca - Real Oviedo	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
05.02.17	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	2:1
04.09.16	Mallorca - Real Oviedo	0:0

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