Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Barakaldo		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.88	2.88
	2.42	2.98	2.92
	2.44	2.95	3.04
	2.37	3.02	3.09	Watch
	2.41	2.89	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.37)	2.94 ↓ (3.02)	2.98 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
38.2%

Draw
31.1%

Ponferradina
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

30.8%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

32.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Barakaldo - Ponferradina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ispizua I. (G) 7. Pedernales I. 4. Dufur U. 18. Arana M. 16. Lopez O. 17. de Leon J. 5. Molina E. 21. San Bartolome V. 6. Naveira U. 20. Mandiang S. 19. Galarza A.	13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 4. Moltenis B. 2. Andujar D. 19. Lopez A. 18. Vazquez B. 5. Undabarrena E. 14. Fernandez X. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 10. Valle B. (C) 9. Cortes J.
Substitutes
23. Albizua U. 13. Campos G. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 3. Garcia B. 8. Huidobro J. 14. Munoz I. 11. Perez E. 24. Ropero I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M.	25. Barredo P. (G) 16. Frimpong E. 17. Keita A. 12. Lian 11. Mula A. 3. Novoa G. 6. San Emeterio F. 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', 🟨,
19', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Mandiang S. 🟨,
58', 🟨,
61', Molina E. ↓, Huidobro J. ↑,
61', Mandiang S. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
66', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 8)

Barakaldo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ponferradina is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barakaldo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Barakaldo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Barakaldo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.10.25	Lugo - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
24.10.25	Barakaldo - Tenerife	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
10.10.25	Barakaldo - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Arenteiro - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TWTWT
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.11.25	Ponferradina - Cacereño	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
30.10.25	UD Logroñés - Ponferradina	1:3 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.10.25	Mérida AD - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Ponferradina - Zamora	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Talavera de la Reina - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.02.25	Ponferradina - Barakaldo	0:1
17.11.24	Barakaldo - Ponferradina	0:1

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