Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 24

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ourense CF		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.25
	2.25	2.88	3.35
	2.19	2.94	3.63
	2.25	2.87	3.61	Watch
	2.15	2.7	3.4
	2.18	2.79	3.54
	2.14	2.8	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.44)	2.85 ↓ (2.91)	3.47 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
41.7%

Draw
32%

Mérida AD
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

31.1%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

31.9%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mérida AD might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Ourense CF - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 2. Coto E. 5. Prado M. 14. Perez A. 3. Sanz H. (C) 21. Guerrero A. 24. Moreno C. 8. Ramos J. 17. Hernandez R. 9. Sergio Benito 18. Rabadan D.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 19. Pipe (C) 4. Pareja L. 5. Dominguez J. 23. Verges E. 18. Dibrani B. 6. Geovanny 12. Gomes R. 11. Areso J. 9. Hallsson S. 7. Chiqui
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 20. Gueye L. 12. Jelbat A. 16. Munoz D. 10. Ochoa M. 23. Punzano I. 1. Raton A. (G) 15. Rivas L. 22. Yuste A.	21. Beneit R. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 26. Gil A. (G) 17. Herranz Corral V. 28. Martinez M. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', Guerrero A. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Guerrero A. ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Hernandez R. ⚽,
45+1', Areso J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Dominguez J. 🟨,
63', Dibrani B. ↓, Beneit R. ↑,
63', Pipe ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Areso J. ⚽,
68', Rabadan D. ↓, Ochoa M. ↑,
68', Sergio Benito ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
70', 3 - 1, Ochoa M. ⚽,
76', Guerrero A. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
76', Ramos J. ↓, Aranzabe A. ↑,
76', Areso J. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
76', Pareja L. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
81', Capitas M. 🟨,
90+2', Sanz H. ↓, Jelbat A. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Ourense CF has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mérida AD is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ourense CF might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ourense CF won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.02.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ourense CF - Cacereño	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Ourense CF - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ponferradina - Ourense CF	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLWL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.02.26	Mérida AD - Zamora	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Real Avilés - Mérida AD	1:2 ✺
23.01.26	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Mérida AD - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2

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