Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 16

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ourense CF		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.25	2.92	3.25
	2.29	2.99	3.54
	2.29	2.9	3.48	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.3
	2.25	2.86	3.27
	2.22	2.83	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.48)	2.89 ↓ (3.14)	3.31 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
40.8%

Draw
31.6%

Barakaldo
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

29.6%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28.7%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barakaldo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Ourense CF - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 5. Prado M. 22. Yuste A. 4. Carmona F. (C) 3. Sanz H. 12. Jelbat A. 8. Ramos J. 21. Guerrero A. 6. Castillo N. 17. Ouhdadi O. 7. Bouzaig A.	1. Ispizua I. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 24. Ropero I. 4. Dufur U. 16. Lopez O. 11. Perez E. 8. Huidobro J. (C) 6. Naveira U. 17. de Leon J. 9. Valino A. 22. Torra M.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 26. Comas O. 2. Coto E. 19. Garcia D. 24. Moreno C. 16. Munoz D. 14. Perez A. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K.	23. Albizua U. 13. Campos G. (G) 19. Galarza A. 3. Garcia B. 15. Jimenez I. 20. Mandiang S. 5. Molina E. 14. Munoz I. 7. Pedernales I. 10. Sabin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Castillo N. ⚽,
18', 2 - 0, Yuste A. ⚽,
26', Ouhdadi O. 🟨,
45+4', Carmona F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Aranzabe A. ↑,
61', Torra M. ↓, Galarza A. ↑,
61', de Leon J. ↓, Mandiang S. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Perez E. ⚽,
68', Castillo N. ↓, Moreno C. ↑,
68', Ramos J. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
72', Huidobro J. ↓, Sabin ↑,
72', Valino A. ↓, Molina E. ↑,
81', Guerrero A. ↓, Coto E. ↑,
81', Bouzaig A. ↓, Vazquez K. ↑,
86', Perez E. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
89', Lopez O. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 2, Sabin ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 12).

Ourense CF is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barakaldo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Barakaldo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ourense CF will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ourense CF won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Ourense CF won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Ourense CF - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.46%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Ourense CF - Girona	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ourense CF - Unionistas de Salamanca	4:3 ✺
22.11.25	Arenteiro - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Ourense CF - CD Guadalajara	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 LWWWW
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.12.25	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Barakaldo - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Barakaldo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.01.25	Barakaldo - Ourense CF	1:1
29.09.24	Ourense CF - Barakaldo	1:3

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