Match Info

Championship - Round 16

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)


	Oxford United		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.01	Watch
	3.55	3.45	2.08	Watch
	3.62	3.45	2.09
	3.74	3.46	1.99	Watch
	3.85	3.45	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↓ (3.77)	3.42 ↓ (3.44)	2.05 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
26%

Draw
27.7%

Middlesbrough
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

27.4%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

27.2%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Middlesbrough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	13.3%	80%

Oxford United - Middlesbrough Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Middlesbrough will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Middlesbrough will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 7. Placheta P. 12. Harris L. 19. Goodrham T. 27. Lankshear W.	31. Brynn S. (G) 2. Brittain C. 12. Ayling L. (C) 5. Jones A. 3. Targett M. 7. Hackney H. 18. Morris A. 11. Whittaker M. 16. Browne A. 10. Burgzorg D. 9. Conway T.
Substitutes
29. Davies B. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 50. Krastev F. 22. Leigh G. 17. Mills S. 16. Prelec N. 11. ter Haar Romeny O. 4. Vaulks W.	24. Bangura A. 36. Cartwright F. 14. Gilbert A. 17. Hamilton M. 40. McCormick G. 8. McGree R. 33. McLaughlin J. (G) 20. Sene M. K. 22. Silvera S.
Coaches
Rowett G.	Viveash A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Harris L. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Harris L. ⚽, Currie J. (A),
34', Browne A. 🟨,
40', De Keersmaecker B. 🟨,
42', Brannagan C. ↓, Vaulks W. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Targett M. ↓, Silvera S. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Whittaker M. ⚽, Brittain C. (A),
62', Morris A. ↓, McGree R. ↑,
62', Burgzorg D. ↓, Sene M. K. ↑,
63', Harris L. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
63', Goodrham T. ↓, Krastev F. ↑,
63', Placheta P. ↓, Mills S. ↑,
76', Lankshear W. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
83', Harris M. 🟨,
87', Sene M. K. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 21 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Oxford is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Middlesbrough's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Middlesbrough is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Oxford: Currie J. (Knock) Phillips M. (Thigh Injury) Spencer B. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Kante A. (Groin Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Fry D. (Injury) Targett M. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1.3:2.8).

Including home match between the teams, Oxford won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:6.

Last Results with these Odds

Oxford United - the odds 3.77 are the expected chance of winning is 25.06%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Middlesbrough - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 47.5%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
08.11.25	West Bromwich Albion - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
04.11.25	Oxford United - Stoke City	0:3 ✺
01.11.25	Oxford United - Millwall	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
22.10.25	Wrexham - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTWL
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
08.11.25	Middlesbrough - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
04.11.25	Leicester City - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Watford - Middlesbrough	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Middlesbrough - Wrexham	1:1 ✺
22.10.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Middlesbrough	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.03.25	Middlesbrough - Oxford United	2:1
23.11.24	Oxford United - Middlesbrough	2:6
Club Friendly
12.07.17	Middlesbrough - Oxford United	0:0
English FA Cup
18.02.17	Middlesbrough - Oxford United	3:2

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