Match Info

Championship - Round 14

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+


	Oxford United		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.16	3.26	2.33	Watch
	3.25	3.38	2.35
	2.80	3.39	2.47	Watch
	3.06	3.24	2.32	Watch
	2.95	3.2	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.8)	3.28 ↓ (3.39)	2.36 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
30.9%

Draw
28.9%

Stoke City
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

27.9%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

28.3%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	34.6%	42.3%

Oxford United - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). Stoke will win (votes: 11 - 42.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 34.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 23.3% – 61.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Oxford (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Stoke (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 22. Leigh G. 4. Vaulks W. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 17. Mills S. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 7. Placheta P. 27. Lankshear W.	1. Johansson V. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 17. Bocat E. 15. N'Zonzi S. 8. Baker L. 12. Seko T. 7. Thomas S. 42. Manhoef M. 9. Mubama D.
Substitutes
29. Davies B. 23. Dembele S. 12. Harris L. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 50. Krastev F. 16. Prelec N. 18. Sibley L. 11. ter Haar Romeny O.	10. Bae J. 13. Bonham J. (G) 11. Bozenik R. 29. Cisse L. 3. Cresswell A. 23. Gibson B. 4. Pearson B. 19. Rigo T. 40. Talovierov M.
Coaches
Rowett G.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Baker L. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, N'Zonzi S. ⚽, Baker L. (A),
40', Brown C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 0 - 3, Baker L. ⚽,
53', Placheta P. ↓, Dembele S. ↑,
53', Vaulks W. ↓, Prelec N. ↑,
59', N'Zonzi S. 🟨,
63', Baker L. ↓, Bae J. ↑,
63', Seko T. ↓, Pearson B. ↑,
73', Mubama D. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,
73', Manhoef M. ↓, Cisse L. ↑,
74', Phillips A. 🟨,
76', Lankshear W. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
78', N'Zonzi S. ↓, Rigo T. ↑,
81', Mills S. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
81', Leigh G. ↓, Sibley L. ↑,
83', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 18 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent performances by Oxford have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stoke is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Oxford: Phillips M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Gallagher S. (Muscle Injury) Lawal B. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: Currie J. (Injury) Spencer B. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Oxford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Stoke City - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 38.3%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
01.11.25	Oxford United - Millwall	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
22.10.25	Wrexham - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Oxford United - Derby County	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Watford - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLWL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
01.11.25	Stoke City - Bristol City	5:1 ✺
25.10.25	Portsmouth - Stoke City	0:1 ✺
21.10.25	Millwall - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Stoke City - Wrexham	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Blackburn Rovers - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
25.01.25	Stoke City - Oxford United	0:0
14.09.24	Oxford United - Stoke City	1:0

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