Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 45

Date: 19 April 2024, Friday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Oxford United		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.4
	1.8	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.83	3.62	4.73
	1.81	3.62	4.73
	1.8	3.6	4.4
	1.82	3.65	4.41	Watch
	1.75	3.45	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.9)	3.58 ↑ (3.45)	4.48 ↑ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
52.5%

Draw
26.4%

Stevenage Borough
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

27%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

25.7%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.3%	4.3%	17.4%

Oxford United - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: Oxford United will win (18 of 23 users predict this - 78.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 61.4% – 95.12%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 15. Stevens F. 2. Long S. (C) 3. Brown C. 22. Leigh G. 11. Browne M. 20. Rodrigues R. 8. Brannagan C. 19. Goodrham T. 23. Murphy J. 9. Harris M.	12. MacGillivray C. (G) 14. Smith K. 15. Vancooten T. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 22. Guinness-Walker N. 23. Thompson L. 11. Roberts J. 18. White H. 10. Freeman N. 29. Hemmings K. 19. Reid J.
Substitutes
12. Bennett J. 10. Bodin B. 30. Dale O. 13. Eastwood S. (G) 17. Henry J. 14. Smyth O. 4. Thorniley J.	44. Evans M. 9. List E. 41. Mitchell R. (G) 20. Pressley A. 6. Sweeney D. 24. Thompson B. 4. Thompson N.
Coaches
Buckingham D.	Revell A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Vancooten T. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Long S. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 1 - 1, Brannagan C. (Pen),
60', Reid J. ↓, Thompson B. ↑,
64', Brown C. ↓, Dale O. ↑,
71', Guinness-Walker N. 🟨,
72', Rodrigues R. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
72', Goodrham T. ↓, Henry J. ↑,
80', Freeman N. ↓, List E. ↑,
88', Smith K. 🟨,
90+2', White H. ↓, Thompson N. ↑,
90+2', Roberts J. ↓, Sweeney D. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oxford won 3.

Oxford is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Stevenage is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Oxford could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Oxford is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Oxford won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 18-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League One
16.04.24	Oxford United - Lincoln City	0:1 ✺
13.04.24	Oxford United - Peterborough United	5:0 ✺
06.04.24	Burton Albion - Oxford United	0:4 ✺
01.04.24	Oxford United - Fleetwood Town	4:0 ✺
29.03.24	Shrewsbury Town - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWWT
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
13.04.24	Stevenage Borough - Burton Albion	1:2 ✺
09.04.24	Stevenage Borough - Barnsley	2:1 ✺
06.04.24	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
01.04.24	Charlton Athletic - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
29.03.24	Stevenage Borough - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
30.09.23	Stevenage Borough - Oxford United	1:3
English EFL Trophy
05.10.21	Oxford United - Stevenage Borough	1:2
29.08.17	Stevenage Borough - Oxford United	2:6
English League Two
25.03.16	Oxford United - Stevenage Borough	1:1
31.10.15	Stevenage Borough - Oxford United	1:5
31.01.15	Stevenage Borough - Oxford United	0:2
20.09.14	Oxford United - Stevenage Borough	0:0

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