Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 40

Date: 16 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Swabey L. (Eng)


	Oxford United		Lincoln City

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.6
	2	3.5	3.4
	1.95	3.5	3.75	Watch
	2.02	3.76	3.57
	2.02	3.76	3.57
	2	3.6	3.4
	2.02	3.62	3.58	Watch
	1.93	3.55	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.05)	3.61 ↑ (3.54)	3.54 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
47.3%

Draw
26.1%

Lincoln City
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

26.5%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.4%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Lincoln City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Oxford United aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	6.7%	26.7%

Oxford United - Lincoln City Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Lincoln will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oxford: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 15. Stevens F. 2. Long S. (C) 3. Brown C. 22. Leigh G. 6. McEachran J. 30. Dale O. 20. Rodrigues R. 19. Goodrham T. 23. Murphy J. 9. Harris M.	1. Jensen L. (G) 25. Mitchell A. 15. O'Connor P. (C) 23. Roughan S. 2. Sorensen L. 6. Erhahon E. 14. Mandroiu D. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 18. House B. 9. Taylor J. 34. Draper F.
Substitutes
10. Bodin B. 8. Brannagan C. 11. Browne M. 13. Eastwood S. (G) 18. McGuane M. 14. Smyth O. 4. Thorniley J.	16. Burroughs J. 17. Duffy D. 22. Eyoma T. 5. Jackson A. 27. Makama J. 28. Moylan J. 12. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Buckingham D.	Skubala M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Hackett-Fairchild R. ↓, Duffy D. ↑,
16', Mitchell A. 🟨,
20', Duffy D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 1, Mandroiu D. (Pen),
49', O'Connor P. 🟨,
59', Goodrham T. ↓, Brannagan C. ↑,
63', Rodrigues R. 🟨,
70', Dale O. ↓, Browne M. ↑,
71', McEachran J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
73', Browne M. 🟨,
75', Taylor J. 🟨,
76', Draper F. ↓, Moylan J. ↑,
76', Taylor J. ↓, Makama J. ↑,
79', Mandroiu D. 🟨,
83', Duffy D. 🟨,
87', Rodrigues R. ↓, McGuane M. ↑,
89', McGuane M. 🟨,
90+2', Moylan J. ↓, Jackson A. ↑,
90+2', Sorensen L. ↓, Eyoma T. ↑,
90+3', Brannagan C. 🟨,
90+5', House B. 🟨,
90+6', Erhahon E. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oxford won 2.

Oxford in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lincoln is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Oxford will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Oxford won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League One
13.04.24	Oxford United - Peterborough United	5:0 ✺
06.04.24	Burton Albion - Oxford United	0:4 ✺
01.04.24	Oxford United - Fleetwood Town	4:0 ✺
29.03.24	Shrewsbury Town - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Port Vale - Oxford United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWTW
- Lincoln City
English League One
13.04.24	Lincoln City - Wigan Athletic	1:2 ✺
06.04.24	Reading - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
01.04.24	Carlisle United - Lincoln City	1:3 ✺
29.03.24	Lincoln City - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Lincoln City - Bristol Rovers	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
31.10.23	Lincoln City - Oxford United	0:2
04.03.23	Lincoln City - Oxford United	1:0
16.08.22	Oxford United - Lincoln City	1:2
08.01.22	Lincoln City - Oxford United	2:0
28.08.21	Oxford United - Lincoln City	3:1
26.03.21	Oxford United - Lincoln City	2:1
12.09.20	Lincoln City - Oxford United	2:0

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