Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 29

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday


	Pärnu Vaprus U21		Tartu Kalev

	1	X	2
	1.87	4.10	2.90
	1.82	4.15	3.05
	1.78	4.33	3.01
	1.91	4.48	2.89	Watch
	1.79	4.25	3.25
	1.73	4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.33)	4.22 ↑ (4.1)	3.02 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus U21
49.2%

Draw
21.2%

Tartu Kalev
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

21.8%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

21.8%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pärnu Vaprus U21's performance.

Tartu Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tartu Kalev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus U21 than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pärnu Vaprus U21 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tartu Kalev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tartu Kalev Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4 - over (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', 0 - 1, Samulin R. ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, Kruusla G. ⚽,
26', 0 - 3, Villems M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
73', 0 - 4, Kohv K. ⚽,

Preview

Pärnu Vaprus U21 is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Tartu Kalev has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tartu Kalev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Pärnu Vaprus U21 might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus U21 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72:58	14	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	14	4	12	95:62	33	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
10.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	7:0 ✺
30.08.26	Tallinna JK Legion - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:5 ✺
24.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tabasalu	6:0 ✺
20.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Viljandi Tulevik	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWT
- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga B
10.09.26	Tallinna JK Legion - Tartu Kalev	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Tartu Kalev - Narva Trans U21	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:3 ✺
25.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Tammeka U21	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
15.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:0
10.05.26	Tartu Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:2

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