Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Philips Stadion (Eindhoven)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	PSV Eindhoven		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	3	3.75	2.15
	3.05	3.7	2.28
	3.09	3.75	2.27
	3.06	3.9	2.23
	3	3.6	2.15
	3.1	3.87	2.22
	3	3.6	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↓ (3.15)	3.74 ↓ (3.88)	2.23 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PSV Eindhoven
31.4%

Draw
25.6%

Atlético Madrid
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

24.7%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

24.5%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PSV Eindhoven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.4%	14.6%	66%

PSV Eindhoven - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. PSV will win (votes: 19 - 18.8%). Atlético will win (votes: 67 - 66.3%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 14.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 57.1% – 75.5%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - PSV (1.65) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - PSV (1.84) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - PSV (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (38 of 49 users predict this - 77.55%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 54 Selected Experts predict this event. PSV (votes: 9 - 16.7%). Atlético (votes: 40 - 74.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 9.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Kovar M. (G) 8. Dest S. 22. Schouten J. (C) 3. Gasiorowski Y. 2. Salah-Eddine A. 34. Saibari I. 17. Mauro Junior 23. Veerman J. 10. Wanner P. 20. Til G. 11. Driouech C.	13. Oblak J. (G) 16. Molina N. 18. Pubill M. 17. Hancko D. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 6. Koke (C) 8. Barrios P. 23. Gonzalez N. 9. Sorloth A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
19. Bajraktarevic E. 31. Fernandez N. 6. Flamingo R. 27. Man D. 39. Nagalo A. 4. Obispo A. 1. Olij N. (G) 9. Pepi R. 5. Perisic I. 24. Schiks N. (G) 25. Sildillia K.	11. Almada T. 32. Bonar J. 5. Cardoso J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 21. Galan J. 4. Gallagher C. 7. Griezmann A. 24. Le Normand R. 12. Martin C. 30. Martinez D. 1. Musso J. (G) 22. Raspadori G.
Coaches
Bosz P.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Til G. ⚽, Driouech C. (A),
20', Saibari I. 🟨,
33', Schouten J. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽, Sorloth A. (A),
37', Simeone D. 🟨,
41', Mauro Junior 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', Simeone G. 🟨,
50', Barrios P. 🟨,
52', 1 - 2, Hancko D. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
54', Gasiorowski Y. 🟨,
56', 1 - 3, Sorloth A. ⚽, Barrios P. (A),
58', Gasiorowski Y. ↓, Obispo A. ↑,
59', Wanner P. ↓, Man D. ↑,
69', Gonzalez N. ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
73', Til G. ↓, Pepi R. ↑,
75', Sorloth A. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
76', Koke ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
81', Driouech C. ↓, Perisic I. ↑,
85', 2 - 3, Pepi R. ⚽, Perisic I. (A),
89', Simeone G. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
90+2', Ruggeri M. 🟨,

Preview

PSV has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Atlético has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, PSV has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in PSV: Boadu M. (Inactive) Plea A. (Knee Injury) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Baena A. (Hamstring Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Muscle Injury) Lenglet C. (Muscle Injury) Llorente M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, PSV won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1).

Including home matches between the teams, PSV won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.96%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
06.12.25	Heerenveen - PSV Eindhoven	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	PSV Eindhoven - Volendam	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Liverpool - PSV Eindhoven	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	NAC Breda - PSV Eindhoven	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	AZ Alkmaar - PSV Eindhoven	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.6 WWWWW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
02.12.25	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Oviedo	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Getafe - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
23.11.16	Atlético Madrid - PSV Eindhoven	2:0
13.09.16	PSV Eindhoven - Atlético Madrid	0:1
15.03.16	Atlético Madrid - PSV Eindhoven	1:0 penalties
24.02.16	PSV Eindhoven - Atlético Madrid	0:0

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