Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 15

Date: 22 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Paços de Ferreira		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.2	3.1	2.87
	2.4	3.2	2.95
	2.42	3.3	3.19
	2.36	3.14	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3	3
	2.33	3.24	3.05	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.34)	3.16 ↓ (3.2)	3.03 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
39.8%

Draw
29.5%

Alverca
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

29.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

30.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

The chances for Alverca have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Paços de Ferreira - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Alverca will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Marafona (G) 21. Anilson 23. Ferigra E. 3. Diegao 5. Antunes V. (C) 8. Welton 6. Joao Caiado 11. Pavlic I. 7. Nogueira G. 9. Ze Uilton 30. Costinha	98. Joao Bravim (G) 22. David Bruno 6. Velazquez S. (C) 5. Varela F. 36. Thauan Lara 16. Pires M. 40. Ageu E. 88. Martins D. 7. Brenner Lucas 9. Carter A. 10. Andrezinho
Substitutes
4. Cardoso G. 2. Icaro 12. Jeimes (G) 90. Lumungo R. 22. Mota 32. Niang A. 17. Paulo M. 18. Pedro R. 34. Teixeira T.	3. Alysson 25. Dias R. 18. Eduardo W. 89. Lima J. 13. Paulo Eduardo 35. Pedro Bicalho 74. Shinga K. 23. Silva P. (G)
Coaches
Silva R.	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', Joao Caiado ↓, Lumungo R. ↑,
20', Anilson 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Carter A. ⚽,
33', Martins D. 🟨,
34', 0 - 2, Carter A. ⚽, Martins D. (A),
45+9', 1 - 2, Lumungo R. ⚽, Costinha (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Velazquez S. ↓, Paulo Eduardo ↑,
59', Brenner Lucas 🟨,
65', Antunes V. ↓, Paulo M. ↑,
65', Welton ↓, Pedro R. ↑,
68', Martins D. ↓, Pedro Bicalho ↑,
72', Brenner Lucas ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
72', Costinha ↓, Teixeira T. ↑,
81', Carter A. ↓, Lima J. ↑,
87', Diegao 🟨,
88', 1 - 3, Andrezinho ⚽,
90+5', Thauan Lara 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 8).

Paços de Ferreira is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Alverca is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.24	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Paços de Ferreira - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
01.12.24	Tondela - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
10.11.24	Paços de Ferreira - Porto B	2:2 ✺
02.11.24	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLTL
- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.24	Alverca - Chaves	3:1 ✺
08.12.24	Oliveirense - Alverca	1:4 ✺
30.11.24	Alverca - Vizela	4:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Alverca - Rio Ave	2:3 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
10.11.24	Benfica B - Alverca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWLL

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