Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 1

Date: 20 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Paços de Ferreira		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.15
	3.65	3.2	2.05
	3.4	3.1	2.07
	3.74	3.3	2.11
	3.6	3	2.05
	3.58	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.45	3.15	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (2.85)	3.16 ↑ (3.01)	2.08 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
26.1%

Draw
29.3%

Casa Pia
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

30.1%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

29%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paços de Ferreira's form might have worsened.

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casa Pia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.8%	3.7%	81.5%

Paços de Ferreira - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 22 - 81.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Casa Pia: 66.9% – 96.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Paços de Ferreira has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Casa Pia is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Paços de Ferreira could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Casa Pia will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Casa Pia to win the game is with odds 2.14.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
13.11.22	Paços de Ferreira - Vizela	0:2 ✺
05.11.22	Porto - Paços de Ferreira	4:0 ✺
28.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
22.10.22	Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
16.10.22	Setúbal - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
13.11.22	Casa Pia - Chaves	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Casa Pia - Valadares Gaia	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.11.22	Braga - Casa Pia	0:1 ✺
30.10.22	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.09.22	Paços de Ferreira - Casa Pia	2:3
Taça de Portugal
25.11.18	Paços de Ferreira - Casa Pia	3:1

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