Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 3
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Lithuania	Sport 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Sporting Lisbon		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	1.17	6.5	13	Watch
	1.16	7.9	12.5	Watch
	1.17	7.92	15.2	Watch
	1.17	7.5	13
	1.18	8.7	15	Watch
	1.2	6.5	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↑ (1.1)	7.5 ↓ (8.65)	13.62 ↓ (22.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
80.5%

Draw
12.6%

Casa Pia
6.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85%

10.8%

4.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 18 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 76.9% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Sporting (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 2. Matheus Reis 25. Inacio G. (C) 13. Vagiannidis G. 52. Simoes J. 5. Morita H. 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 31. Luis Guilherme 97. Suarez L.	1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 74. Nhaga R. 42. Perez S. 5. Conte A. 7. Nsona K. 90. Cassiano 29. Livolant J.
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 23. Braganca D. 6. Debast Z. 58. Goncalves F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 45. Moreira D. 90. Nel R. 12. Virginia J. (G)	33. Batista R. (G) 8. Brito R. 3. Kaly 99. Mendes C. 24. Mohamed I. 21. Morais T. 19. Prieto K. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 17. Severina X.
Coaches
Borges R.	Pacheco A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', Fonte J. 🟨,
37', Fonte J. ↓, Kaly ↑,
38', 1 - 0, Catamo G. ⚽, Trincao (A),
43', 2 - 0, Catamo G. ⚽, Inacio G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nsona K. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
66', Vagiannidis G. ↓, Mangas R. ↑,
66', Luis Guilherme ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
69', Livolant J. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
69', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Braganca D. ⚽, Suarez L. (A),
83', Catamo G. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
83', Simoes J. ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
83', Matheus Reis ↓, Debast Z. ↑,
85', Nhaga R. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
86', Sousa D. 🟨,
90', Mendes C. 🟥,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 5.

Sporting is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Casa Pia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sporting is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Araujo M. (Yellow Cards) Blopa S. (Inactive) Debast Z. (Knee Injury) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Hjulmand M. (Yellow Cards) Inacio G. (Red Card) Quenda G. (Foot Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Geraldes A. (Yellow Cards) Kaique Rocha (Injury) Kiki (Knee Injury) Tchamba D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Ioannidis F. (Injury) Quaresma E. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:7. (average 3.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:1. (average 4.3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Portuguese League Cup
06.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
23.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTWWW
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
04.01.26	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.08.25	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	0:2
09.03.25	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	1:3
05.10.24	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	2:0
29.01.24	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	8:0
18.08.23	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
09.04.23	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	3:4
22.10.22	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:1

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