Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	NBC Universo, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Chivas Guadalajara		Tigres UANL

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.3	Watch
	2.18	3.35	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3.57	3.4
	2.18	3.3	3.43
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.14	3.32	3.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.99)	3.36 ↓ (3.48)	3.29 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chivas Guadalajara
43.6%

Draw
27.9%

Tigres UANL
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

26.9%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

27.5%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Guadalajara will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Tigres will win (votes: 8 - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tigres: 55.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Tigres (1.67) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Whalley O. (G) 2. Castillo J. 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 5. Gonzalez B. 37. Ledezma R. 20. Sepulveda A. 28. Gonzalez F. (C) 6. Govea O. 10. Alvarez E. 226. Sandoval S. 17. Marin R.	1. Guzman N. (G) 14. Garza J. 23. Romulo 27. Angulo J. 2. Reyes F. 5. Araujo C. 6. Vigon J. 7. Correa A. 11. Brunetta J. (C) 30. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 17. Aguirre R.
Substitutes
67. Aguayo S. 26. Camberos H. 24. Gomez M. 225. Inda S. 198. Latorre D. 201. Liceaga J. (G) 31. Padilla Y. 18. Perez J. 3. Sepulveda G. 4. Tapias M.	3. Farfan M. 20. Flores M. 198. Galvan I. 10. Gignac A. 33. Guerrero R. 16. Lainez D. 19. Lopez I. 32. Lorona V. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 4. Sanchez J.
Coaches
Milito G.	Pizarro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Garza J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sanchez Guevara D. A. ↓, Lainez D. ↑,
60', Aguirre R. ↓, Lorona V. ↑,
62', Vigon J. ↓, Guerrero R. ↑,
68', Castillo J. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Sandoval S. ⚽,
77', 2 - 0, Sandoval S. ⚽, Govea O. (A),
80', Garza J. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
80', Angulo J. ↓, Gignac A. ↑,
84', Ledezma R. ↓, Sepulveda G. ↑,
84', Marin R. ↓, Aguayo S. ↑,
90', Reyes F. 🟥,
90+1', Alvarez E. ↓, Padilla Y. ↑,
90+1', Sandoval S. ↓, Tapias M. ↑,
90+7', Guerrero R. 🟨,
90+8', Gignac A. 🟨,
90+8', Gonzalez F. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-3.

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 0.

Guadalajara has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tigres is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Guadalajara may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Guadalajara could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Guadalajara: Alvarado R. (International duty) Gonzalez A. (International duty) Gutierrez B. (International duty) Rangel R. (International duty) Romo L. (International duty)

There will not play in Tigres: Herrera O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Guadalajara: Aguirre D. (Injury) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Tigres: Gorriaran F. (Injury) Joaquim (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:36. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.9:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Guadalajara Chivas	10	5	3	2	17:10	7	18
11	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	13:15	-2	13

Last Results with these Odds

Chivas Guadalajara - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 47.15%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
02.05.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
25.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	0:0 ✺
22.04.26	Necaxa - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Puebla	5:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTTWL
- Tigres UANL
CONCACAF Champions Cup
05.05.26	Tigres UANL - Nashville SC	1:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
02.05.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
28.04.26	Nashville SC - Tigres UANL	0:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Tigres UANL - Mazatlan	5:1 ✺
22.04.26	Atlas - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
02.05.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	3:1
11.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	4:1
17.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	0:0
25.01.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	1:1
24.08.24	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1
21.01.24	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0
28.10.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	0:4

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