Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Miguel Hidalgo (Pachuca de Soto) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	21:10	FOX+, FOX One
South America	—	ViX Latin America


	Pachuca		Cruz Azul

	1	X	2
	3	3.6	2.2	Watch
	2.95	3.60	2.20
	2.95	3.45	2.22	Watch
	3.09	3.8	2.29
	2.98	3.7	2.24	Watch
	3	3.55	2.2
	2.91	3.5	2.22	Watch
	2.9	3.65	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.5)	3.61 ↑ (3.4)	2.22 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pachuca
31.6%

Draw
26.1%

Cruz Azul
42.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.6%

26.9%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

25.9%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cruz Azul's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pachuca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cruz Azul, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Pachuca - Cruz Azul Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cruz Azul will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruz Azul (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Moreno C. (C) 13. Berlanga J. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 32. Budib P. 15. Venegas F. 16. Rivera C. 26. Bautista A. 21. Vallejo N. 7. Pizarro R. 11. Idrissi O. 23. Rondon S.	1. Gudino A. (G) 17. Garcia A. 12. Montes A. 33. Piovi G. 2. Mozo A. 6. Lira E. (C) 16. Marquez J. 3. Campos O. 8. Palavecino A. 19. Rodriguez C. 21. Fernandez G.
Substitutes
9. Alcaraz A. 187. Alvarez G. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 211. Hernandez C. 6. Isais M. 29. Kenedy 186. Lopez A. B. 221. Martinez U. 30. Rodriguez S. 12. Santos S.	14. Calero J. 60. Castro A. 11. Ebere C. 55. Gonzalez R. 7. Ibanez N. 23. Mier K. (G) 10. Montano A. 5. Orozco J. 18. Romero L. 29. Rotondi C.
Coaches
Mora B.	Huiqui J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Eduardo Bauermann 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Fernandez G. ⚽, Mozo A. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Venegas F. ⚽, Pizarro R. (A),
39', Rodriguez C. 🟨,
45', Idrissi O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Venegas F. 🟨,
61', Campos O. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
61', Marquez J. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
63', Pizarro R. 🟨,
67', Pizarro R. ↓, Alcaraz A. ↑,
67', Idrissi O. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,
70', Mozo A. ↓, Rotondi C. ↑,
70', Palavecino A. ↓, Montano A. ↑,
75', Budib P. 🟨,
79', 1 - 2, Montano A. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Vallejo N. ↓, Kenedy ↑,
79', Berlanga J. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
82', Rodriguez C. ↓, Orozco J. ↑,
85', Garcia A. 🟨,
85', Venegas F. ↓, Isais M. ↑,
90+4', Romero L. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 16th and 6th in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Cruz Azul could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Pachuca: Barreto S. D. (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for Cruz Azul: Levy M. (Knee Injury) Morales A. (Knee Injury) Paradela J. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Pachuca: Arroyo A. (Foot Injury) Dominguez A. (Foot Injury) Kenedy (Injury) Micolta A. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Cruz Azul: Ditta W. (Contusion) Rotondi C. (Foot Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pachuca has recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:28 (averaging 1.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pachuca against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 13:9 goals (averaging 1.3:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Cruz Azul	14	8	2	4	32:23	9	26
13	Pachuca	14	4	4	6	22:19	3	16

Outrights of Mexican Liga MX for now

Cruz Azul: 13.24% Pachuca: 1.22%

Last Results with these Odds

Pachuca - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.56%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Cruz Azul - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.56%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
18.10.26	Monterrey - Pachuca	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Pachuca - Necaxa	3:3 ✺
26.09.26	Santos Laguna - Pachuca	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Pachuca - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Atlante - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LTLTW
- Cruz Azul FC
Mexican Liga MX
17.10.26	Cruz Azul - Juárez	5:0 ✺
11.10.26	UNAM - Cruz Azul	3:3 ✺
26.09.26	Cruz Azul - Toluca	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	1:0 ✺
Campeones Cup
16.09.26	Inter Miami - Cruz Azul	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
04.04.26	Cruz Azul - Pachuca	1:2
13.09.25	Pachuca - Cruz Azul	0:1
08.02.25	Cruz Azul - Pachuca	2:1
28.09.24	Pachuca - Cruz Azul	2:4
13.01.24	Cruz Azul - Pachuca	0:1
23.08.23	Pachuca - Cruz Azul	1:0
01.04.23	Pachuca - Cruz Azul	0:2

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