Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Corona (Torreón)

Referee: Escobedo Gonzalez A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	UniMas, Univision


	Santos Laguna		Pachuca

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.30	3.00	Watch
	2.45	3.40	2.65
	2.38	3.40	2.65	Watch
	2.50	3.49	2.96
	3.31	3.59	2.12	Watch
	2.45	3.45	2.85
	2.53	3.35	2.88	Watch
	2.39	3.45	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (3.45)	3.43 ↓ (3.55)	2.74 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos Laguna
37.5%

Draw
27.8%

Pachuca
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

25.9%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

25.2%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos Laguna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos Laguna's performance.

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pachuca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos Laguna than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos Laguna that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pachuca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Santos Laguna - Pachuca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pachuca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pachuca will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Acevedo C. (G) 18. Pardo F. (C) 25. Sanchez F. 14. Orona E. 3. Cuevas M. 23. Caseres F. 21. Villalba F. 7. Gonzalez D. 77. Palacios K. 20. Lozano E. 10. Bullaude E.	25. Moreno C. (C) 12. Santos S. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 2. Barreto S. D. 6. Isais M. 30. Rodriguez S. 16. Rivera C. 21. Vallejo N. 26. Bautista A. 15. Venegas F. 23. Rondon S.
Substitutes
4. Abella J. 19. Aguirre E. 17. Echeverria E. 193. Gomez L. 6. Guemez J. 33. Holguin H. (G) 29. Jimenez T. 5. Lopez A. 28. Perez J. 26. Sordo R.	9. Alcaraz A. 187. Alvarez G. 32. Budib P. 206. Contreras T. A. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 211. Hernandez C. 11. Idrissi O. 7. Pizarro R. 14. Sanchez C. 195. Soto E.
Coaches
Alves R.	Mora B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', Venegas F. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Villalba F. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Isais M. ↓, Idrissi O. ↑,
46', Bautista A. ↓, Pizarro R. ↑,
47', Caseres F. 🟨,
59', Palacios K. ↓, Aguirre E. ↑,
67', Rodriguez S. ↓, Alcaraz A. ↑,
68', Santos S. ↓, Sanchez C. ↑,
73', Lozano E. ↓, Sordo R. ↑,
73', Villalba F. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
81', Vallejo N. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,
89', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
90+3', Orona E. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
90+3', Gonzalez D. ↓, Echeverria E. ↑,
90+4', Barreto S. D. 🟨,
90+6', Sanchez C. 🟨,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 17th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos Laguna won 1.

In recent outings, Santos Laguna has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Pachuca shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Santos Laguna may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Pachuca is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Santos Laguna: Amione B. (Knee Injury) Di Yorio L. (Leg Injury).

Confirmed absences for Pachuca: Arroyo A. (Foot Injury) Berlanga J. (Injury) Dominguez A. (Foot Injury) Kenedy (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Santos Laguna: Lozano C. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Pachuca: Micolta A. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Santos Laguna has recorded 3 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:35 (averaging 1.1:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Santos Laguna against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with 9:14 goals (averaging 0.9:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15:11	4	12
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10:15	-5	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos Laguna
Mexican Liga MX
20.09.26	Toluca - Santos Laguna	2:3 ✺
13.09.26	Santos Laguna - Juárez	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Cruz Azul - Santos Laguna	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Santos Laguna - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Puebla - Santos Laguna	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.3 WWLTL
- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
20.09.26	Pachuca - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Atlante - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Juárez - Pachuca	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Pachuca - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Atlético San Luis - Pachuca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
11.04.26	Pachuca - Santos Laguna	4:2
09.11.25	Santos Laguna - Pachuca	1:0
20.01.25	Pachuca - Santos Laguna	2:1
22.10.24	Santos Laguna - Pachuca	1:1
20.04.24	Santos Laguna - Pachuca	0:2
18.09.23	Pachuca - Santos Laguna	3:2
06.05.23	Pachuca - Santos Laguna	4:5 penalties

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