Match Info

Serie B - Round 6

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Avellino

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.5	Watch
	2.25	2.98	3.35	Watch
	2.36	3	3.7
	1.46	3.90	7.81	Watch
	2.3	3.06	3.57	Watch
	2.12	3.15	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.15)	3.18 ↓ (3.26)	4.22 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
46.2%

Draw
30.7%

Avellino
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.7%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avellino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Padova - Avellino Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Avellino will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Avellino (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Avellino (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Padova (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Padova (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 3 - 25%). Avellino (votes: 3 - 25%). Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Fortin M. (G) 72. Faedo C. 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. 30. Favale G. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 44. Harder J. 7. Varas K. (C) 20. Bortolussi M. 92. Buonaiuto C.	1. Iannarilli A. (C) 29. Cancellotti T. 63. Fontanarosa A. 56. Enrici P. 2. Missori F. 6. Palmiero L. 16. Kumi J. 78. Milani A. 94. Insigne R. 14. Biasci T. 32. Lescano F.
Substitutes
3. Barreca A. 4. Belli F. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 18. Ghiglione P. 15. Lasagna K. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 22. Sorrentino A. (G) 77. Tumiatti F. 55. Villa L.	21. Armellino M. 39. Besaggio M. 23. Cagnano A. 17. Crespi V. 30. Daffara G. (G) 8. Gyabuaa M. 79. Manzi C. 20. Palumbo M. 45. Pane P. (G) 33. Panico G. 10. Russo R. 44. Simic L.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Biancolino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
9', 1 - 0, Sgarbi F. ⚽, Favale G. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Buonaiuto C. ⚽, Varas K. (A),
31', 2 - 1, Biasci T. ⚽, Lescano F. (A),
44', 2 - 2, Lescano F. ⚽, Missori F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Favale G. 🟨,
56', Favale G. ↓, Barreca A. ↑,
57', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
62', Insigne R. ↓, Besaggio M. ↑,
73', Missori F. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
73', Lescano F. ↓, Crespi V. ↑,
77', Fusi P. ↓, Crisetig L. ↑,
77', Varas K. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
82', Cancellotti T. ↓, Simic L. ↑,
83', Palmiero L. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
84', Harder J. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
85', Di Maggio L. 🟨,
89', Russo R. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Padova has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Avellino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Padova might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Inactive) Boi A. (Inactive) Papu Gomez (Suspended) Pastina C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Avellino: D'Andrea L. (Knee Injury) De Cristofaro A. (Knee Injury) Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Patierno C. (Illness) Rigione M. (Muscle Injury) Sounas D. (Inactive) Tutino G. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Padova - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 43.58%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
27.09.25	Monza - Padova	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Padova - Virtus Entella	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Padova - Frosinone	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Carrarese - Padova	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Empoli - Padova	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWLTL
- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
27.09.25	Avellino - Virtus Entella	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Carrarese - Avellino	3:4 ✺
12.09.25	Avellino - Monza	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Modena - Avellino	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Frosinone - Avellino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Super Cup Serie C
03.05.25	Avellino - Padova	0:1
Italian Serie C Group A
09.06.21	Avellino - Padova	0:1
06.06.21	Padova - Avellino	1:1
Italian Serie B
30.05.14	Padova - Avellino	2:1
29.12.13	Avellino - Padova	2:1

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