Match Info

Estonian Cup - Final

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Parnu Rannastaadion (Parnu)

Referee: Koppel K. (Est)


	Paide LM		Flora Tallinn

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.25	2.32	Watch
	3.56	3.45	1.88
	3.29	3.30	2.11	Watch
	3.01	3.58	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.72)	3.4 ↓ (3.6)	2.09 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
29%

Draw
27.1%

Flora Tallinn
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

25.8%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

25.5%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paide LM's form might have worsened.

Flora Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Paide LM - Flora Tallinn Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 7. Tur E. 4. Andrade 3. Victor Hugo 24. Nigula R. 28. Hoim O. 77. Luts D. 11. Sohna M. P. 10. Miller M. 8. Ojamaa H. (C) 9. Anier H.	99. Kivila K. (G) 26. Tovstik S. 23. Kolobov M. 3. Kollo A. 2. Kalmokov N. 32. Kreida V. 18. Valdmets R. 20. Zenjov S. 14. Varjund T. 29. Alamaa S. 11. Sappinen R. (C)
Substitutes
30. Badamosi A. 27. Baranov N. 17. Cham P. A. 6. Daniel Cabral 14. Jobarteh M. 2. Lilander M. 12. Meerits M. (G) 15. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.	9. Alliku R. 67. Antonov I. 33. Grunvald E. (G) 89. Kalimullin M. 7. Kuraksin D. 24. Pihela O. 22. Tatrik A. (G) 8. Teevali T. 17. Usta T. 5. Vaher A. 6. Veering R.
Coaches
Kink T.	Vasiliev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Zenjov S. ⚽,
28', Ojamaa H. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Alamaa S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
58', 0 - 3, Andrade (Own goal),
62', Ojamaa H. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
62', Anier H. ↓, Badamosi A. ↑,
62', Luts D. ↓, Daniel Cabral ↑,
64', 0 - 4, Zenjov S. ⚽,
65', Zenjov S. ↓, Kuraksin D. ↑,
70', Hoim O. ↓, Smirnov R. ↑,
70', Nigula R. ↓, Lilander M. ↑,
73', 0 - 5, Sappinen R. ⚽,
74', Sappinen R. ↓, Alliku R. ↑,
74', Alamaa S. ↓, Usta T. ↑,
74', Kreida V. ↓, Antonov I. ↑,
74', Varjund T. ↓, Teevali T. ↑,
82', 1 - 5, Sohna M. P. ⚽,
90', Antonov I. 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Parnu Rannastaadion.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paide won 2.

Paide has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Flora is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Flora may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Flora will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paide won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Paide won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
20.05.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Paide LM - Levadia Tallinn	1:3 ✺
10.05.26	Nõmme United - Paide LM	2:3 ✺
Estonian Cup
06.05.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
01.05.26	Paide LM - Tammeka	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWWL
- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Meistriliiga
16.05.26	Narva Trans - Flora Tallinn	0:3 ✺
10.05.26	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	0:1 ✺
Estonian Cup
05.05.26	Flora Tallinn - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
30.04.26	Flora Tallinn - Harju JK Laagri	5:0 ✺
26.04.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
26.04.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:2
Club Friendly
20.02.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:3
Estonian Meistriliiga
26.10.25	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:1
21.06.25	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	2:1
15.06.25	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2
18.04.25	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:0
Club Friendly
22.02.25	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:0

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