Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 7

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)

Referee: Jaanovits J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Paide LM		Nõmme Kalju

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.15	2.38	Watch
	2.9	3.29	2.38
	2.86	3.34	2.37	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.3
	2.86	3.14	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.51)	3.22 ↓ (3.34)	2.35 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
32.4%

Draw
28.5%

Nõmme Kalju
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

26.9%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

26.6%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Nõmme Kalju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 2. Lilander M. 5. Juhkam G. 4. Andrade 24. Nigula R. 11. Sohna M. P. 28. Hoim O. (C) 6. Daniel Cabral 10. Miller M. 17. Cham P. A. 77. Luts D.	1. Perk H. (C) 5. Korre U. 46. Vukusic R. 20. Tambedou M. 26. Siht R. 8. Musolitin O. 59. Vastsuk B. 6. Kask K. 88. Sotsugov D. 27. Mannilaan M. 4. Borolinstsikov A.
Substitutes
9. Anier H. 30. Badamosi A. 27. Baranov N. 14. Jobarteh M. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 15. Ojamaa H. 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A. 3. Victor Hugo 43. Willian Lins	21. Baptista T. 24. Iljin A. 10. Ivanov N. 30. Jabir I. 74. Jekimov F. 2. Lillemets J. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 22. Nikolajev A. 11. Orlov M. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 7. Tarassenkov D.
Coaches
Vassiljev V.	Andreev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Sotsugov D. 🟨,
56', Vukusic R. 🟨,
65', Kask K. ↓, Orlov M. ↑,
65', Cham P. A. ↓, Anier H. ↑,
66', Luts D. ↓, Jobarteh M. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Nigula R. ⚽, Anier H. (A),
72', Mannilaan M. ↓, Ivanov N. ↑,
72', Borolinstsikov A. ↓, Tarassenkov D. ↑,
72', Sotsugov D. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
74', Nigula R. ↓, Victor Hugo ↑,
80', Miller M. ↓, Smirnov R. ↑,
81', Siht R. 🟨,
82', Musolitin O. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
90+3', Daniel Cabral 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paide won 3.

Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paide won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paide won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
4	Kalju	29	15	5	9	52:27	25	50

Last Results with these Odds

Paide LM - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 35.86%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.19%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
12.04.26	Tammeka - Paide LM	1:4 ✺
08.04.26	Paide LM - Nõmme United	3:1 ✺
03.04.26	Kuressaare - Paide LM	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Levadia Tallinn - Paide LM	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Paide LM - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWTW
- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
12.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn	1:1 ✺
08.04.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
03.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Nõmme Kalju - Kuressaare	4:0 ✺
15.03.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
14.02.26	Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju	2:1
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.11.25	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:1
14.09.25	Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju	1:1
28.05.25	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	0:2
09.03.25	Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju	4:0
Estonian Cup
05.03.25	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:0
Estonian Meistriliiga
06.10.24	Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju	1:1

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