Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 18

Date: 18 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Maresca F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Palermo		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	3	3.25	2.3	Watch
	3	3.2	2.3
	3.2	3.15	2.2
	2.95	3.1	2.39
	3.28	3.21	2.43
	3.1	3.1	2.38
	3.2	3.05	2.38	Watch
	2.95	3.2	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.66)	3.16 ↑ (3.09)	2.35 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
30.4%

Draw
29.7%

Cagliari
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

29.9%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

27.9%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	69.4%	16.3%

Palermo - Cagliari Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Palermo will win (votes: 7 - 14.3%). Cagliari will win (votes: 8 - 16.3%). It will Tie (votes: 34 - 69.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 56.5% – 82.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 14 and 11).

Palermo has the most likely position - 18 (11%), has project points - 43, has currently - 20, has a chance of relegated (40%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cagliari has the most likely position - 8 (8.67%), has project points - 54, has currently - 22, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (46%), has a small chance of promoted (15%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has quality 31, importance 39, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Palermo won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Cagliari could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Palermo won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Palermo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
11.12.22	SPAL - Palermo	1:1 ✺
08.12.22	Palermo - Como	0:0 ✺
04.12.22	Benevento - Palermo	0:1 ✺
27.11.22	Palermo - Venezia	0:1 ✺
12.11.22	Nuova Cosenza - Palermo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTWLL
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
07.12.22	Ternana - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
03.12.22	Cagliari - Parma	1:1 ✺
27.11.22	Frosinone - Cagliari	2:2 ✺
12.11.22	Cagliari - Pisa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
12.08.18	Cagliari - Palermo	2:1
12.08.17	Cagliari - Palermo	2:1 penalties
Italian Serie A
02.04.17	Palermo - Cagliari	1:3
31.10.16	Cagliari - Palermo	2:1
17.05.15	Cagliari - Palermo	0:1
06.01.15	Palermo - Cagliari	5:0
27.01.13	Cagliari - Palermo	1:1

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