The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
SPAL 39.7%
Draw 30.7%
Palermo 29.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.7%
31.2%
32.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.9%
30.5%
32.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
23.8%
52.4%
23.8%
SPAL - Palermo Predictions
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Palermo will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 52.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31% โ 73.8%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out) and 13).
SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (10.07%), has project points - 44, has currently - 16, has a chance of relegated (38%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (11%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Palermo has the most likely position - 19 (12.13%), has project points - 42, has currently - 19, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality27, importance52, match rating40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
SPAL is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Palermo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
Italy
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