Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 17

Date: 11 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Unipol Domus (Cagliari)

Referee: Serra M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Cagliari		Perugia

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.4
	1.82	3.25	4.6
	1.86	3.2	4.3
	1.9	3.37	4.86
	1.85	3.25	4.5
	1.86	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.86	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.93)	3.33 ↑ (3.13)	4.46 ↑ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cagliari
50.7%

Draw
28.2%

Perugia
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

29.6%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

29.6%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.5%	20%	12.5%

Cagliari - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Cagliari will win (votes: 27 - 67.5%). Perugia will win (votes: 5 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cagliari: 53% – 82%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 12 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Cagliari has the most likely position - 6 (7.64%), has project points - 53, has currently - 19, has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (43%), has a small chance of promoted (15%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (25.61%), has project points - 38, has currently - 13, has a good chance of relegated (65%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 31, importance 35, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Cagliari could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cagliari is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Cagliari won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Cagliari won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
07.12.22	Ternana - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
03.12.22	Cagliari - Parma	1:1 ✺
27.11.22	Frosinone - Cagliari	2:2 ✺
12.11.22	Cagliari - Pisa	1:1 ✺
05.11.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Cagliari	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTTTT
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
08.12.22	Perugia - SPAL	0:0 ✺
04.12.22	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	0:0 ✺
27.11.22	Perugia - Genoa	1:0 ✺
12.11.22	Modena - Perugia	1:1 ✺
05.11.22	Frosinone - Perugia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
05.08.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2
Italian Serie B
14.03.16	Cagliari - Perugia	0:2
27.10.15	Perugia - Cagliari	0:0

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