Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 12

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Arena Pernambuco (São Lourenço da Mata)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Spain	#Vamos
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Recife		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.75	1.4	Watch
	6.9	4.45	1.43
	8.07	4.63	1.45
	10.40	4.81	1.33	Watch
	8.1	4.87	1.43	Watch
	8	4.3	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.16 ↑ (8)	4.64 ↑ (4.3)	1.41 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
11.7%

Draw
20.6%

Flamengo
67.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.7%

21.7%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.2%

20.7%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Sport Recife have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	10.5%	73.7%

Sport Recife - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Flamengo will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 58.6% – 97%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Flamengo (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flamengo will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 36. Luan Candido 14. Rivera C. 21. Lucas Kal 10. Lucas Lima 17. Matheusinho 92. Pablo 38. Leo Pereira	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 61. Joao Victor 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 8. Niguez S. 7. Luiz Araujo 27. Bruno Henrique (C) 16. Samuel Lino 64. Wallace Yan
Substitutes
13. Aderlan 20. Atencio R. 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 19. Hyoran 16. Igor Carius 27. Oliveira S. 9. Ramirez I. 46. Riquelme 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.	33. Cleiton 51. Daniel Sales 81. Douglas Telles 11. Everton 52. Evertton Araujo 77. Goes J. 47. Guilherme Gomes 57. Iago Teodoro 23. Juninho 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 30. Michael 66. Xavier B.
Coaches
Lucena C.	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Ramon Menezes 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Pablo ⚽,
27', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,
34', Pulgar E. 🟨,
37', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,
40', Matheusinho ↓, Aderlan ↑,
41', 1 - 1, Luiz Araujo ⚽, Niguez S. (A),
42', Ramon Menezes 🟨,
44', Joao Victor 🟨,
45+3', Niguez S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Pablo ↓, Igor Carius ↑,
46', Joao Victor ↓, Michael ↑,
56', Wallace Yan ↓, Juninho ↑,
60', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
61', Lucas Lima ↓, Gomes do Nascimento A. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Juninho ⚽,
63', 1 - 3, Bruno Henrique ⚽, Luiz Araujo (A),
71', 1 - 4, Ayrton Lucas ⚽, Everton (A),
77', Leo Pereira ↓, Oliveira S. ↑,
77', Rivera C. ↓, Riquelme ↑,
79', Bruno Henrique ↓, Douglas Telles ↑,
79', Pulgar E. ↓, Evertton Araujo ↑,
80', 1 - 5, Douglas Telles ⚽, Everton (A),
86', Riquelme 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Flamengo is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 0.

Recife is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Flamengo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Flamengo is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Derik Lacerda (Inactive) Hereda (Health problems) Matheus Alexandre (Yellow Cards) Pedro Augusto (Hip Injury) Silva J. (Ankle Injury) Ze Lucas (International duty) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Flamengo: Jorginho (Thigh Injury) Leo Ortiz (Ankle Injury) Pedro (Broken Hand) de Arrascaeta G. (Yellow Cards)

We predict that Flamengo will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Recife won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:28. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
08.11.25	Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro	2:4 ✺
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Flamengo - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Sport Recife - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Internacional RS - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
09.11.25	Flamengo - Santos	3:2 ✺
05.11.25	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Flamengo - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.10.25	Racing - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.10.25	Fortaleza - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.11.25	Flamengo - Sport Recife	3:0
03.12.21	Sport Recife - Flamengo	1:1
15.08.21	Flamengo - Sport Recife	2:0
01.02.21	Sport Recife - Flamengo	0:3
07.10.20	Flamengo - Sport Recife	3:0
18.11.18	Sport Recife - Flamengo	0:1
29.07.18	Flamengo - Sport Recife	4:1

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