Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 5
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports Golf
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 2
Canada	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 4
Georgia	23:00	Silk Sport 3
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport 2
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Iran	22:30	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 8
Mexico	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Mongolia	03:00	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	ESPN South, Space Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 1, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus


	Villarreal		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.7
	4.7	4.1	1.72
	4.82	4.12	1.71
	49.16	12.95	1.03	Watch
	5.17	3.99	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.72 ↑ (4.43)	5.81 ↑ (4.08)	1.57 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
8.3%

Draw
19.5%

Manchester City
72.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.5%

23.4%

55.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

22.5%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Villarreal's form might have worsened.

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manchester City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Villarreal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manchester City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.4%	7.7%	87.9%

Villarreal - Manchester City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Man City (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Man City (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (80 of 91 users predict this - 87.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.21% – 94.61%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (34 of 37 users predict this - 91.89%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 36 - 92.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Junior (G) 15. Mourino S. 8. Foyth J. (C) 12. Veiga R. 24. Pedraza A. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. 16. Partey T. 18. Gueye P. 19. Pepe N. 9. Mikautadze G.	25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. 5. Stones J. 24. Gvardiol J. 14. Nico 20. Silva B. (C) 82. Lewis R. 26. Savinho 9. Haaland E. 11. Doku J.
Substitutes
11. Akhomach I. 3. Altimira A. 23. Cardona S. 13. Conde D. (G) 4. Marin R. 20. Moleiro A. 7. Moreno G. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 10. Parejo D. 22. Perez A. 6. Solomon M. 25. Tenas A. (G)	21. Ait Nouri R. 6. Ake N. 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 52. Bobb O. 10. Cherki R. 47. Foden P. 8. Kovacic M. 7. Marmoush O. 33. O'Reilly N. 4. Reijnders T. 1. Trafford J. (G)
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', Pedraza A. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽, Lewis R. (A),
22', Silva B. 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Silva B. ⚽, Savinho (A),
45', Mourino S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pedraza A. ↓, Cardona S. ↑,
53', Marcelino 🟨,
57', Nico ↓, Kovacic M. ↑,
65', Dias R. 🟨,
66', Mikautadze G. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
66', Buchanan T. ↓, Moleiro A. ↑,
72', Comesana S. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
72', Doku J. ↓, Bobb O. ↑,
73', Lewis R. ↓, Reijnders T. ↑,
75', Gueye P. 🟨,
81', Gueye P. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
85', Moleiro A. 🟨,
86', Haaland E. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
86', Savinho ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Villarreal have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Man City is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Man City is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Muscle Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Khusanov A. (Ankle Injury) Phillips K. (Inactive) Rodri (Hamstring Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.25	Villarreal - Betis	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Villarreal - Juventus	2:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Sevilla - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLTWW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
18.10.25	Manchester City - Everton	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Brentford - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Monaco - Manchester City	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
27.09.25	Manchester City - Burnley	5:1 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.25	Huddersfield Town - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWTWW

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