Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 5
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	Play Sports Golf
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 4
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN South, Space Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 1, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Villarreal		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.7
	4.7	4.1	1.72
	4.82	4.12	1.71
	49.16	12.95	1.03	Watch
	5.17	3.99	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.72 ↑ (4.43)	5.81 ↑ (4.08)	1.57 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Villarreal
8.3%

Draw
19.5%

Manchester City
72.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

23.4%

55.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

22.5%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Villarreal's form might have worsened.

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manchester City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Villarreal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manchester City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.4%	7.7%	87.9%

Villarreal - Manchester City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Man City (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Man City (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (80 of 91 users predict this - 87.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.21% – 94.61%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (34 of 37 users predict this - 91.89%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 36 - 92.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Junior (G) 15. Mourino S. 8. Foyth J. (C) 12. Veiga R. 24. Pedraza A. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. 16. Partey T. 18. Gueye P. 19. Pepe N. 9. Mikautadze G.	25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. 5. Stones J. 24. Gvardiol J. 14. Nico 20. Silva B. (C) 82. Lewis R. 26. Savinho 9. Haaland E. 11. Doku J.
Substitutes
11. Akhomach I. 3. Altimira A. 23. Cardona S. 13. Conde D. (G) 4. Marin R. 20. Moleiro A. 7. Moreno G. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 10. Parejo D. 22. Perez A. 6. Solomon M. 25. Tenas A. (G)	21. Ait Nouri R. 6. Ake N. 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 52. Bobb O. 10. Cherki R. 47. Foden P. 8. Kovacic M. 7. Marmoush O. 33. O'Reilly N. 4. Reijnders T. 1. Trafford J. (G)
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', Pedraza A. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽, Lewis R. (A),
22', Silva B. 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Silva B. ⚽, Savinho (A),
45', Mourino S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pedraza A. ↓, Cardona S. ↑,
53', Marcelino 🟨,
57', Nico ↓, Kovacic M. ↑,
65', Dias R. 🟨,
66', Mikautadze G. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
66', Buchanan T. ↓, Moleiro A. ↑,
72', Comesana S. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
72', Doku J. ↓, Bobb O. ↑,
73', Lewis R. ↓, Reijnders T. ↑,
75', Gueye P. 🟨,
81', Gueye P. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
85', Moleiro A. 🟨,
86', Haaland E. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
86', Savinho ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Villarreal have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Man City is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Man City is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Muscle Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Khusanov A. (Ankle Injury) Phillips K. (Inactive) Rodri (Hamstring Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.25	Villarreal - Betis	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Villarreal - Juventus	2:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Sevilla - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLTWW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
18.10.25	Manchester City - Everton	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Brentford - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Monaco - Manchester City	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
27.09.25	Manchester City - Burnley	5:1 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.25	Huddersfield Town - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWTWW

Upcoming Matches