Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 25 October 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Paris Saint-Germain		Milan

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.75
	1.71	3.8	4.75
	1.72	4.05	4.9	Watch
	1.74	4	4.85
	1.74	4	4.86
	1.67	3.9	4.8
	1.7	3.94	4.95
	1.72	4.1	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.78)	3.97 ↑ (3.82)	4.81 ↑ (4.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris Saint-Germain
56%

Draw
24.1%

Milan
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

24.8%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

26.5%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.9%	12.6%	11.5%

Paris Saint Germain - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 87 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 66 - 75.9%). Milan will win (votes: 10 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 12.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 66.9% – 84.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Donnarumma G. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 37. Skriniar M. 21. Hernandez L. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 4. Ugarte M. 17. Vitinha 10. Dembele O. 23. Kolo Muani R. 7. Mbappe K.	16. Maignan M. (G) 20. Kalulu P. 28. Thiaw M. 23. Tomori F. 19. Hernandez T. (C) 80. Musah Y. 33. Krunic R. 14. Reijnders T. 11. Pulisic C. 9. Giroud O. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
29. Barcola B. 19. Lee Kang-In 30. Letellier A. (G) 26. Mukiele N. 15. Pereira D. 9. Ramos G. 8. Ruiz F. 28. Soler C. 80. Tenas A. (G)	7. Adli Y. 95. Bartesaghi D. 2. Calabria D. 42. Florenzi A. 15. Jovic L. 24. Kjaer S. 83. Mirante A. (G) 69. Nava L. (G) 32. Pobega T. 70. Traore C.
Coaches
Enrique L.	Pioli S.

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

PSG could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match PSG is a favorite.

There will not play in PSG: Kimpembe P. (Convalescence) Mendes N. (Muscle Injury) Rico S. (Head Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Bennacer I. (Knee Injury) Caldara M. (Ankle Injury) Chukwueze S. (Injury) Loftus-Cheek R. (Muscle Injury) Sportiello M. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in PSG: Asensio M. (Foot Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
21.10.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Strasbourg	3:0 ✺
08.10.23	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.10.23	Newcastle United - Paris Saint-Germain	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
30.09.23	Clermont - Paris Saint-Germain	0:0 ✺
24.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLTW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
22.10.23	Milan - Juventus	0:1 ✺
07.10.23	Genoa - Milan	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Milan	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
30.09.23	Milan - Lazio	2:0 ✺
27.09.23	Cagliari - Milan	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWTWW

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