Match Info

Serie A - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Genoa		Milan

	1	X	2
	5	3.75	1.7	Watch
	5	3.6	1.72
	4.95	3.7	1.7	Watch
	5.4	3.8	1.71
	5.31	3.73	1.74	Watch
	4.8	3.5	1.67
	5.22	3.91	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.1 ↑ (4.4)	3.71 ↓ (3.76)	1.71 ↓ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
18.7%

Draw
25.7%

Milan
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

25.3%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

26.1%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.8%	5.1%	82.1%

Genoa - Milan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Genoa (4.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Milan will win (32 of 39 users predict this - 82.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.01% – 94.09%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Genoa (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Milan (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Bijlow J. (G) 77. Ellertsson M. E. 27. Marcandalli A. 34. Otoa S. 22. Vasquez J. (C) 32. Frendrup M. 4. Amorim 17. Malinovskyi R. 8. Baldanzi T. 9. Vitinha 29. Colombo L.	16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 24. Athekame Z. 19. Fofana Y. 30. Jashari A. 12. Rabiot A. 33. Bartesaghi D. 7. Gimenez S. 18. Nkunku C.
Substitutes
74. Doucoure M. 21. Ekhator J. 18. Ekuban C. 80. Grossi J. 40. Klisys L. 75. Lafont G. 1. Leali N. (G) 3. Martin A. 73. Masini P. 99. Ouedraogo W. L. 20. Sabelli S. 39. Sommariva D. (G) 13. Zatterstrom N.	25. Bosveld C. 5. De Winter K. 9. Fullkrug N. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 14. Modric L. 27. Odogu D. 11. Pulisic C. 4. Ricci S. 45. Sardo J. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 96. Torriani L. (G) 34. Vladimirov V.
Coaches
De Rossi D.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', Bijlow J. 🟨,
50', 0 - 1, Nkunku C. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Gabbia M. 🟨,
63', Vitinha 🟨,
64', Baldanzi T. ↓, Ekhator J. ↑,
68', Gimenez S. ↓, Fullkrug N. ↑,
68', Fofana Y. ↓, Ricci S. ↑,
72', Tomori F. 🟨,
76', Tomori F. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
76', Nkunku C. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Athekame Z. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
85', Colombo L. ↓, Ekuban C. ↑,
85', Jashari A. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
86', Ricci S. 🟨,
86', 1 - 2, Vasquez J. ⚽,
90+1', Amorim ↓, Martin A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 0.

Genoa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Milan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Genoa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Milan is the team to beat.

There will not play in Genoa: Junior Messias (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Estupinan P. (Yellow Cards) Leao R. (Yellow Cards) Modric L. (Broken cheekbone) Saelemaekers A. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Genoa: Baldanzi T. (Thigh Injury) Cornet M. (Inactive) Norton-Cuffy B. (Thigh Injury) Otoa S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Milan: Pulisic C. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 18:30. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Genoa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 0.9:1.4).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 7.76% Genoa: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3:10	-7	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
10.05.26	Fiorentina - Genoa	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Atalanta - Genoa	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Genoa - Como	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Pisa - Genoa	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Genoa - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TTLWW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
10.05.26	Milan - Atalanta	2:3 ✺
03.05.26	Sassuolo - Milan	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Milan - Juventus	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Verona - Milan	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Milan - Udinese	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
08.01.26	Milan - Genoa	1:1
05.05.25	Genoa - Milan	1:2
15.12.24	Milan - Genoa	0:0
05.05.24	Milan - Genoa	3:3
07.10.23	Genoa - Milan	0:1
15.04.22	Milan - Genoa	2:0
Coppa Italia
13.01.22	Milan - Genoa	3:1 ET

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