Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 4 October 2023, Wednesday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore
France	beIN Sports
Hungary	Sport 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Borussia Dortmund		Milan

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.75
	2.5	3.4	2.7
	2.6	3.45	2.78	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.7
	2.64	3.45	2.83
	2.45	3.5	2.7
	2.64	3.6	2.89
	2.55	3.6	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.24)	3.46 ↓ (3.54)	2.78 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
37.5%

Draw
27.8%

Milan
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

26.8%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

28.5%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Borussia Dortmund, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Milan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.3%	23.1%	44.6%

Borussia Dortmund - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 21 - 32.3%). Milan will win (votes: 29 - 44.6%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 32.5% – 56.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 15. Hummels M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 5. Bensebaini R. 23. Can E. (C) 6. Ozcan S. 19. Brandt J. 11. Reus M. 21. Malen D. 14. Fullkrug N.	16. Maignan M. (G) 2. Calabria D. (C) 28. Thiaw M. 23. Tomori F. 19. Hernandez T. 80. Musah Y. 14. Reijnders T. 32. Pobega T. 11. Pulisic C. 9. Giroud O. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
27. Adeyemi K. 43. Bynoe-Gittens J. 9. Haller S. 35. Lotka M. (G) 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Moukoko Y. 8. Nmecha F. 7. Reyna G. 25. Sule N. 17. Wolf M.	7. Adli Y. 95. Bartesaghi D. 21. Chukwueze S. 42. Florenzi A. 15. Jovic L. 24. Kjaer S. 83. Mirante A. (G) 17. Okafor N. 57. Sportiello M. (G)
Coaches
Terzic E.	Pioli S.

Preview

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Borussia D could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Borussia D: Meunier T. (Inactive) Morey M. (Inactive) Sabitzer M. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Bennacer I. (Knee Injury) Caldara M. (Ankle Injury) Kalulu P. (Muscle Injury) Krunic R. (Muscle Injury) Loftus-Cheek R. (Muscle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
29.09.23	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	1:3 ✺
23.09.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Borussia Dortmund	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
16.09.23	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	2:4 ✺
01.09.23	Borussia Dortmund - Heidenheim	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLWT
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
30.09.23	Milan - Lazio	2:0 ✺
27.09.23	Cagliari - Milan	1:3 ✺
23.09.23	Milan - Verona	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.23	Milan - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.09.23	Inter Milan - Milan	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

International Champions Cup
18.07.17	Milan - Borussia Dortmund	1:3

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