Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 5 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)


	Patronato Parana		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	4	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.75	3.1	2.05
	3.95	3.15	2.08
	4.02	3.22	2.11
	3.6	3	2.05
	3.82	3.28	2.04	Watch
	3.7	3.05	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↓ (4.52)	3.13 ↓ (3.3)	2.07 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
24.5%

Draw
30.1%

Atlético Nacional
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

28.2%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

27.8%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Patronato Parana - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Patronato will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Recent matches Patronato is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético Nacional is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Atlético Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.04.23	Deportivo Morón - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
25.03.23	Patronato Parana - Güemes	1:2 ✺
11.03.23	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Patronato Parana	0:0 ✺
06.03.23	Patronato Parana - Alvarado	6:0 ✺
Argentinian Super Cup
01.03.23	Boca Juniors - Patronato Parana	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLTWL
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
01.04.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
25.03.23	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
17.03.23	Deportivo Pereira - Atlético Nacional	0:2 ✺
11.03.23	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTWTW

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