Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV3


	Patronato Parana		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.6	3	2.15
	3.6	3.05	2.18
	3.75	3.05	2.22
	3.5	2.88	2.15
	3.64	3.13	2.15	Watch
	3.55	3.05	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↓ (4.03)	3.04 ↓ (3.43)	2.17 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
26%

Draw
30.9%

Botafogo RJ
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

27.2%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

26.6%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Patronato Parana - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Patronato will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Botafogo will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salva J. (G) 4. Geminiani L. 13. Ojeda S. 36. Ghiraldello J. 16. Barinaga J. 10. Valdez J. 5. Domingo N. 8. Arce D. 11. Novero G. 15. Vazquez F. 7. Esquivel J.	12. Lucas Perri (G) 24. Di Placido L. 21. Marcal (C) 15. Victor Cuesta 5. Danilo 27. Carlos Alberto 43. Breno 37. Junior Santos 33. Carlos Eduardo 39. Janderson 94. Philipe Sampaio
Substitutes
6. Bellatti S. D. N. 27. Budino M. (G) 20. Caceres T. 25. Gonzalez K. 30. Kruspzky L. 54. La Mastra M. 34. Levato M. 50. Miro A. 33. Pereyra V. L. 21. Ramos A. 32. Russo I. 22. Sosa A.	34. Adryelson 1. Fernandez R. (G) 10. Gustavo Sauer 54. Hernandez D. 16. Hugo 52. Igo Gabriel (G) 57. JP Galvao 11. Luis Henrique 4. Segovia L. 20. Segovia M. 6. Tche Tche 9. Tiquinho Soares
Coaches
de Paoli R.	Lage B.

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Patronato is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Botafogo in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Botafogo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Botafogo is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.07.23	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	2:0 ✺
02.07.23	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Flandria	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.06.23	Atlético Nacional - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
24.06.23	San Martín de San Juan - Patronato Parana	2:1 ✺
18.06.23	Patronato Parana - Defensores Unidos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 LWWLW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
09.07.23	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
02.07.23	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.06.23	Botafogo RJ - Deportes Magallanes	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.06.23	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
22.06.23	Cuiabá - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.4 WWTWW

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