Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 21

Date: 18 June 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)

Referee: Gariano A. (Arg)


	Patronato Parana		Defensores Unidos

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.3	4.33
	1.8	3.5	4.3
	1.81	3.37	5.03
	1.75	3.2	4.6
	1.8	3.48	4.65
	1.8	3.4	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.69)	3.35 ↓ (3.39)	4.54 ↓ (5.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
52%

Draw
27.6%

Defensores Unidos
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

27.4%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

30%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Defensores Unidos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Patronato Parana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensores Unidos than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	15.4%	7.7%

Patronato Parana - Defensores Unidos Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Patronato will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Defensores Unidos will win (votes: 2 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Patronato: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salva J. (G) 4. Geminiani L. 2. Ruiz M. 6. Vazquez F. 3. Kruspzky L. 8. Valdez J. 5. Domingo N. (C) 10. Arce D. 7. Russo I. 9. Diaz E. 11. Esquivel J.	1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Ponce J. 2. Laumann F. (C) 6. Zadel D. 3. Mbombaj G. 8. Gomez B. 5. Nizzo M. 11. Garcia B. 10. Disanto L. 9. Toloza N. 7. Osuna L.
Substitutes
14. Aruga M. 15. Barinaga J. 12. Budino M. (G) 13. Diaz G. 16. Gonzalez K. 18. Levato M. 17. Pereyra V. L. 19. Solis N. 20. Sosa A.	12. Aquino M. (G) 19. Bellido T. 15. Desposito P. 13. Morales A. 18. Nunez D. 16. Ortigoza M. 17. Palazuelos B. 20. Suarez J. 14. Suarez L.
Coaches
de Paoli R.	Davio S.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Patronato is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Defensores Unidos is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Defensores Unidos could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Patronato is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Patronato won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.06.23	Patronato Parana - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
10.06.23	Guillermo Brown - Patronato Parana	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.06.23	FBC Melgar - Patronato Parana	5:0 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.06.23	Agropecuario Argentino - Patronato Parana	2:1 ✺
28.05.23	Patronato Parana - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLLW
- Defensores Unidos
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.06.23	Defensores Unidos - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:0 ✺
04.06.23	Defensores Unidos - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
28.05.23	Deportivo Flandria - Defensores Unidos	0:2 ✺
20.05.23	Defensores Unidos - San Martín de San Juan	0:0 ✺
07.05.23	Guillermo Brown - Defensores Unidos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.02.23	Defensores Unidos - Patronato Parana	1:1

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