Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 4 May 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Patronato Parana		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.25	3	3.3
	2.12	3.35	3.6
	2.14	3.24	3.89
	2.2	3	3.25
	2.12	3.24	3.6	Watch
	2.22	3.1	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.47)	3.16 ↓ (3.16)	3.49 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
43.3%

Draw
29.7%

FBC Melgar
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

28.8%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.7%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Patronato Parana's performance.

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FBC Melgar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Patronato Parana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	16%	4%

Patronato Parana - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Patronato will win (votes: 20 - 80%). Melgar will win (votes: 1 - 4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Patronato: 64.3% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Patronato could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Patronato will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.04.23	Patronato Parana - Nueva Chicago	0:0 ✺
22.04.23	All Boys - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.04.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Patronato Parana	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.04.23	Patronato Parana - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Defensores de Belgrano - Patronato Parana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWLTL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
29.04.23	FBC Melgar - Cantolao	5:0 ✺
24.04.23	Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar	3:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.04.23	Atlético Nacional - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
14.04.23	FBC Melgar - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
09.04.23	Sport Huancayo - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTLWT

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