Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 3

Date: 1 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana)

Referee: Quiroz J. C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Alianza Atlético		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	2.28	3.15	3.25	Watch
	2.24	3	3.53
	2.76	2.75	2.91	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.9
	2.38	3.29	3.15	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.33)	3.14 ↓ (3.45)	3.09 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Atlético
39.8%

Draw
29.9%

FBC Melgar
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

27.1%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

26.5%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Melgar will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Atlético: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Melgar (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Alianza Atlético (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Melgar (3.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 2 - 50%). Melgar (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Melian D. (C) 3. Vasquez C. 30. Guzman P. 4. Villegas J. C. 13. Benincasa H. 21. Perleche E. 29. Graneros A. 22. Ysique F. 8. Illanes F. 23. Olmedo L. 19. Perez M.	12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. 24. Tandazo W. 7. Bordacahar C. 10. Martinez T. 14. Vidales J. 9. Cuesta B. (C)
Substitutes
7. Castro R. 17. del Castillo J. 27. Diaz R. 9. Espinosa R. 24. Gordillo A. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 15. Lupu H. 20. Perez J. 95. Prieto D. (G)	28. Arias A. 25. Barreda M. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 17. Liza P. 18. Quagliata N. 4. Ramos E. 19. Rodriguez G.
Coaches
Ameli G.	Balta V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Cuesta B. 🟨,
16:03, (Pen),
44', Olmedo L. 🟨,
45', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Illanes F. ↓, Larios Saavedra G. A. ↑,
60', Perez M. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
61', Martinez T. ↓, Quagliata N. ↑,
74', Vasquez C. ↓, Gordillo A. ↑,
74', Lazo M. ↓, Ramos E. ↑,
74', Bordacahar C. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
80', Vidales J. ↓, Liza P. ↑,
82', Olmedo L. ↓, Castro R. ↑,
82', Benincasa H. ↓, Espinosa R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:24. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Atlético won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
27.07.25	Alianza Lima - Alianza Atlético	1:1 ✺
18.07.25	Alianza Atlético - Sport Huancayo	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Alianza Atlético - Sport Boys	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Alianza Atlético	2:0 ✺
29.06.25	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TTWLW
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
27.07.25	FBC Melgar - Cusco	0:2 ✺
19.07.25	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	1:2 ✺
12.07.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
02.07.25	Juan Pablo II College - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
23.02.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	2:1
25.07.24	Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar	3:1
10.02.24	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	1:0
15.09.23	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	4:0
24.04.23	Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar	3:3
30.10.22	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	0:1
03.07.22	Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar	0:0

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