Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 16

Date: 13 December 2024, Friday

Location: Nouste Camp (Pau)

Referee: Benchabane F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Pau		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	6.25	Watch
	1.55	3.8	6
	1.53	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.58	3.99	7.02
	1.52	3.93	6.52	Watch
	1.57	3.8	6
	1.55	4.05	6.2	Watch
	1.53	3.75	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.77)	3.9 ↑ (3.54)	6.37 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pau
61%

Draw
24.2%

Ajaccio
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

26.5%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

26.3%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pau's performance.

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajaccio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pau than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajaccio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Pau - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: Pau will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kamara B. (C) 2. Koudou T. 22. Ahoussou A. 25. Ruiz J. 23. Obiang J. 17. Mille A. 8. Mohamed I. 18. Diawara K. 14. Bobichon A. 9. Mboup P. 10. Boutaib K.	16. Sollacaro F. (G) 5. Vidal C. (C) 31. Ayessa J. 88. Bamba A. 43. Kouassi A. 35. Khelifa A. 21. Chegra I. 11. Toure B. 25. Anziani J. 22. Soumano M. 9. Ibayi C.
Substitutes
7. Arconte T. 27. Gasnier K. 12. Gaspar J. 33. Kalulu J. 4. Kouassi L.X. 6. Ngom O. 77. Paradowski T. (G)	. Fragassi T. 27. Kante A. 36. Martinez-Jullien O. . Prenant Caporossi V. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 99. Santelli B. 19. Toure A.
Coaches
Usai N.	Chabert M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Ruiz J. ⚽, Bobichon A. (A),
27', Khelifa A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ayessa J. ↓, Fragassi T. ↑,
58', Soumano M. ↓, Santelli B. ↑,
58', Toure B. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
65', Ibayi C. 🟨,
72', Diawara K. ↓, Arconte T. ↑,
72', Bobichon A. ↓, Ngom O. ↑,
80', Khelifa A. 🟨,
83', Obiang J. ↓, Gaspar J. ↑,
83', Anziani J. ↓, Martinez-Jullien O. ↑,
88', Mille A. ↓, Gasnier K. ↑,
90+1', Chegra I. ↓, Prenant Caporossi V. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pau won 1.

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Pau is a favorite.

There will not play in Pau: Beusnard S. (Injury) Gomes T. (Injury) Kalulu J. (Injury) Kante (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajaccio: Jabol-Folcarelli T. (Leg Injury) Mangani T. (Injury) Touzghar Y. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Pau won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:11 (average 0.9:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Pau won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
06.12.24	Rodez - Pau	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
30.11.24	Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu - Pau	2:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 2
22.11.24	Pau - Red Star	4:1 ✺
09.11.24	Pau - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
01.11.24	Annecy - Pau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWTL
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
07.12.24	Ajaccio - Paris FC	0:2 ✺
03.12.24	Ajaccio - Bastia	0:0 ✺
25.11.24	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
15.11.24	Les Herbiers - Ajaccio	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
08.11.24	Ajaccio - Clermont	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
06.04.24	Pau - Ajaccio	1:1
21.10.23	Ajaccio - Pau	2:0
09.04.22	Ajaccio - Pau	2:1
30.10.21	Pau - Ajaccio	1:0
01.05.21	Pau - Ajaccio	0:0
05.01.21	Ajaccio - Pau	4:1
Club Friendly
09.07.19	Pau - Ajaccio	2:1

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