Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 14

Date: 25 November 2024, Monday

Location: Stade Marcel Tribut (Dunkerque)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	TOD
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4


	Dunkerque		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	5	Watch
	1.77	3.25	5
	1.8	3.25	4.75	Watch
	1.81	3.3	5.34
	1.78	3.28	5.05	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.8
	1.83	3.38	4.79	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.97)	3.29 ↑ (3.28)	4.94 ↑ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dunkerque
52.4%

Draw
28.6%

Ajaccio
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

28.7%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

28.2%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunkerque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	7.5%	7.5%

Dunkerque - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: Dunkerque will win (33 of 38 users predict this - 86.84%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.09% – 97.59%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Ortola A. (G) 2. Georgen A. 26. Sangante O. (C) 23. Sasso V. 30. Abner F. 28. Raghouber U. 80. Yassine G. 22. Skytta N. 20. Bardeli E. 8. Rivera M. 19. Bammou Y.	16. Sollacaro F. (G) 20. Youssouf M. 31. Ayessa J. 5. Vidal C. (C) 12. Huard M. 25. Anziani J. 17. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 26. Jabol-Folcarelli T. 34. Silva R. 99. Santelli B. 9. Ibayi C.
Substitutes
18. Courtet G. 10. Essimi M. 1. Jaouen E. (G) 5. Queiros D. 15. Sekongo A. 9. Tejan K. 17. Youssouf B.	21. Chegra I. 27. Kante A. 6. Mangani T. 8. Puch-Herrantz M. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 23. Strata T.
Coaches
Castro L.	Chabert M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Jabol-Folcarelli T. ↓, Mangani T. ↑,
21', Youssouf M. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Bammou Y. (Pen),
35', Santelli B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Silva R. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
65', Santelli B. ↓, Chegra I. ↑,
65', Sasso V. ↓, Queiros D. ↑,
65', Bammou Y. ↓, Courtet G. ↑,
72', Huard M. 🟥,
75', Bardeli E. ↓, Sekongo A. ↑,
75', Rivera M. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
82', Youssouf M. ↓, Puch-Herrantz M. ↑,
82', Anziani J. ↓, Strata T. ↑,
88', Yassine G. ↓, Essimi M. ↑,
90+1', Tejan K. 🟨,
90+5', Skytta N. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Ligue 2 (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dunkerque won 2.

Recent matches Dunkerque is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ajaccio is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Dunkerque could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Dunkerque is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Dunkerque won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1.3:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Dunkerque won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USL Dunkerque
French Ligue 2
08.11.24	Grenoble - Dunkerque	0:1 ✺
01.11.24	Dunkerque - Amiens	3:1 ✺
29.10.24	Lorient - Dunkerque	4:2 ✺
25.10.24	Dunkerque - Red Star	2:0 ✺
18.10.24	Laval - Dunkerque	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWLWL
- AC Ajaccio
Coupe De France
15.11.24	Les Herbiers - Ajaccio	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
08.11.24	Ajaccio - Clermont	2:0 ✺
04.11.24	Ajaccio - Metz	0:1 ✺
29.10.24	Guingamp - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
19.10.24	Amiens - Ajaccio	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
23.01.24	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	2:0
02.09.23	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	2:2
19.04.22	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	2:1
20.11.21	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	0:1
23.01.21	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	3:1
30.09.20	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	1:0

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