Match Info

Serie B - Round 4

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
World	Disney+


	Athletico Paranaense		CRB Maceio

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.1	7	Watch
	1.53	3.6	6
	1.47	4	7
	1.46	4.23	7.95
	1.47	4	7.55	Watch
	1.57	3.5	6.5
	1.46	4.1	7.55	Watch
	1.47	4	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.75)	3.94 ↑ (3.47)	7.07 ↑ (4.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
63%

Draw
23.7%

CRB Maceio
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

26.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

28.3%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletico Paranaense's performance.

CRB Maceio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CRB Maceio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CRB Maceio than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CRB Maceio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Athletico Paranaense - CRB Maceio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mycael (G) 18. Palacios H. 28. Habraao 3. Leo 37. Esquivel L. 5. Felipinho 98. Falcao 10. Zapelli B. 19. Luiz Fernando 27. Alan Kardec (C) 11. Isaac	12. Matheus Albino (G) 60. Hayner 3. Anderson Jesus 44. Henri 2. Matheus Ribeiro 30. Fernando Henrique 22. Higor Meritao 8. Gege (C) 10. Danielzinho 7. Douglas Baggio 9. Breno Herculano
Substitutes
45. Belezi 47. Chiqueti 6. Fernando 4. Figueiredo T. 21. Leozinho 88. Patrick 31. Raul 70. Renan 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis 7. Velasco K.	99. Daniel Lima 34. Darlisson 11. David 28. Mikael 70. Nathan Melo 18. Rafinha 33. Rodriguinho 17. Thiaguinho 1. Vitor Caetano (G) 42. Weverton 6. Willian Bahia
Coaches
Mauricio Barbieri	Eduardo Barroca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Hayner 🟨,
6', 1 - 0, Alan Kardec ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
12', Anderson Jesus 🟨,
45+1', Zapelli B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Douglas Baggio ↓, David ↑,
46', Fernando Henrique ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
60', Breno Herculano ↓, Daniel Lima ↑,
60', Luiz Fernando ↓, Velasco K. ↑,
61', Alan Kardec ↓, Renan ↑,
66', Higor Meritao 🟨,
72', Zapelli B. ↓, Tevis ↑,
73', Felipinho ↓, Patrick ↑,
78', Anderson Jesus ↓, Darlisson ↑,
78', Hayner ↓, Mikael ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Renan ⚽, Tevis (A),
83', Esquivel L. ↓, Figueiredo T. ↑,
89', Darlisson 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Athletico PR is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

CRB is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

CRB could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Athletico PR is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Julimar (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in CRB: Gazao (Inactive)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.8:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:2 (average 3.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
15.04.25	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
10.04.25	Athletico Paranaense - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
04.04.25	Paysandu - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
19.03.25	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	0:3 ✺
16.03.25	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLT
- CRB Maceio
Brazilian Serie B
17.04.25	CRB Maceio - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Athletic Club - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	CRB Maceio - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Fortaleza - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
21.03.25	CRB Maceio - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
25.04.23	Athletico Paranaense - CRB Maceio	3:1 penalties
12.04.23	CRB Maceio - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
11.09.12	Athletico Paranaense - CRB Maceio	4:1
09.06.12	CRB Maceio - Athletico Paranaense	N/A

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