Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Danubio

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.4	6.25	Watch
	1.52	3.75	6.1
	1.55	3.76	7.12
	1.52	3.95	6.5	Watch
	1.53	3.5	6.5
	1.58	3.52	6.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.7)	3.65 ↑ (3.59)	6.49 ↑ (4.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
60.3%

Draw
25.4%

Danubio
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

26%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

25.2%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peñarol de Montevideo's performance.

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 4. Gularte E. 34. Herrera N. 6. Ferreira L. 2. Escobar F. 21. Jesus Trindade 8. Fernandez N. 23. Togni G. 32. Umpierrez L. 10. Fernandez L. 19. Arezo M.	1. Goicoechea M. (G) 18. Mayada C. 3. Pereyra J. 2. Velazquez E. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 20. Ferreira M. 10. Peralta M. 7. Cabrera E. 21. Azambuja N.
Substitutes
77. Angulo L. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 55. Couture L. 35. Gonzalez L. 25. Gonzalez M. 93. Laxalt D. 3. Lemos M. 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K.	40. Balatti F. 9. Costantino I. 28. Femia E. 30. Fernandez S. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 4. Rinaldi M. 6. Sosa L. 17. Velazquez A.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Monarriz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', Herrera N. ↓, Laxalt D. ↑,
9', 0 - 1, Cabrera E. ⚽,
45+4', Gularte E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Laxalt D. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
56', Togni G. ↓, Angulo L. ↑,
63', Cabrera E. ↓, Costantino I. ↑,
63', Peralta M. ↓, Sosa L. ↑,
73', Fernandez N. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
73', Umpierrez L. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
74', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
74', Ferreira M. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Angulo L. ⚽,
80', Azambuja N. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
84', Mayada C. 🟨,
85', Angulo L. 🟨,
87', Cavanagh T. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 4.

Peñarol is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Danubio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Peñarol is the team to beat.

We predict that Peñarol will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:10. (average 1.4:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.97%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Central Español - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	3:1 ✺
Uruguayan Super Cup
01.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLWW
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Racing Montevideo - Danubio	4:0 ✺
15.02.26	Danubio - Boston River	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Cerro - Danubio	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
12.01.26	Boston River - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0
05.04.25	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
16.10.24	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
14.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0
19.11.23	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1
08.07.23	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0
15.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0

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