Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 3

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Danubio		Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	3.8	Watch
	1.93	3.1	3.8
	1.95	3.2	3.75
	2.02	3.17	4.38
	1.92	3.34	4.09	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.8
	1.94	3.37	3.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 (1.95)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	3.93 ↓ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Danubio
47.6%

Draw
28.7%

Progreso
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

28.7%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

23.7%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Danubio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Danubio - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: Danubio will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (C) 40. Balatti F. 3. Pereyra J. 4. Rinaldi M. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 10. Peralta M. 18. Mayada C. 20. Ferreira M. 7. Cabrera E. 21. Azambuja N.	33. Requena A. (G) 16. Trasante G. 13. Carroso H. 27. Silva G. 40. Cougo A. 8. Colombino A. 11. Lopez N. 5. Pinheiro A. 18. Silva G. 14. Kidd F. 25. Dos Santos J.
Substitutes
28. Femia E. 30. Fernandez S. 15. Figueroa E. 33. Garcia D. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 22. Montana A. 14. Pereira B. 6. Sosa L.	6. Andueza F. 2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 30. Codagnone A. 23. Copelotti M. 17. De Leon F. 7. Fernandez F. 10. Lemmo I. 1. Mehring A. (G) 21. Rivero J. 9. Silva G.
Coaches
Ramos L.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Pereyra J. ⚽,
41', Kidd F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kidd F. ↓, De Leon F. ↑,
46', Azambuja N. 🟨,
54', Silva G. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
58', Trasante G. 🟨,
68', Ferreira M. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
69', Peralta M. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
77', Balatti F. ↓, Jourdan M. ↑,
77', Azambuja N. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
77', Cougo A. ↓, Andueza F. ↑,
80', Dos Santos J. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
80', Pinheiro A. ↓, Lemmo I. ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Silva G. ⚽,
90+4', Garcia D. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Copelotti M. ⚽, De Leon F. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 1.

Danubio is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Progreso is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Progreso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Danubio is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:24. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.4:1.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	Danubio - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLLWT
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.26	Progreso - Montevideo City Torque	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Progreso - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2
24.08.25	Progreso - Danubio	1:0
31.05.25	Progreso - Danubio	0:1
23.02.25	Danubio - Progreso	1:1
12.10.24	Progreso - Danubio	0:0
06.04.24	Danubio - Progreso	1:1
Uruguay Copa
31.08.22	Progreso - Danubio	3:2 penalties

Upcoming Matches