Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Peñarol de Montevideo		Juventud de Las Piedras

	1	X	2
	1.4	3.8	7.5	Watch
	1.39	4.25	7.3
	1.43	4.4	8.45
	1.39	4.76	7.54
	1.4	4.2	7
	1.43	4.02	8.34	Watch
	1.41	4.3	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.38)	4.25 ↑ (4.15)	7.62 ↑ (7.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
66%

Draw
21.9%

Juventud de Las Piedras
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

21.9%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

21%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

The chances for Juventud de Las Piedras have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Escobar F. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Remedi E. 8. Fernandez N. 13. Darias E. 32. Umpierrez L. 77. Angulo L. 11. Hernandez A.	1. Sosa S. (C) 5. Morosini D. 2. Pernicone P. 23. Mas E. 16. Rabino R. 19. Cecchini E. 21. Perez F. 14. Roldan L. 11. Lago P. 80. Mimbacas F. 15. Cruz A.
Substitutes
9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 80. Gonzalez F. 25. Gonzalez M. 21. Jesus Trindade 93. Laxalt D. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G.	32. Barrios V. 27. Boselli J. 30. Gomez G. 90. Guerrero S. 8. Izaguirre M. 37. Peralta R. 26. Pereiro G. 9. Perez M. 28. Risso F. 12. Rossi N. (G)
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Olivera M. ↓, Jesus Trindade ↑,
13', Umpierrez L. 🟨,
18', Roldan L. 🟨,
25', Morosini D. 🟨,
37', Ferreira L. 🟨,
42', Cecchini E. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Rabino R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, Hernandez A. ⚽,
56', Angulo L. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
59', Roldan L. ↓, Peralta R. ↑,
66', Lago P. ↓, Boselli J. ↑,
70', Aguerre W. 🟨,
75', Rabino R. 🟨,
75', Hernandez A. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
75', Darias E. ↓, Togni G. ↑,
76', Remedi E. 🟨,
78', 1 - 2, Mimbacas F. ⚽,
82', 2 - 2, Umpierrez L. ⚽,
83', Perez F. 🟨,
85', Fernandez N. 🟨,
86', Perez F. ↓, Izaguirre M. ↑,
86', Mimbacas F. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
86', Cruz A. ↓, Pereiro G. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Juventud may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is the obvious favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 29:6. (average 1.8:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:2. (average 2.1:0.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
7	Juventud	9	3	5	1	10:6	4	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Platense	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
29.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTWL
- Juventud de Las Piedras
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Cienciano	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Racing Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Boston River	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0
27.03.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
21.09.19	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
18.08.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:0
03.03.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	4:1
11.11.17	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0
08.04.17	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2

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